Using Adaptive Management to Understand Elk Population Dynamics and Distributions in Northwest Montana

Abstract

State agencies and wildlife commissions manage wildlife populations using the best available information; however, efficacy of management prescriptions to meet goals can be hampered by uncertainty regarding drivers of population dynamics. In hunting district 121, declines in bull harvest since 2012 and uncertainties about population vital rates and distributions have led to concerns regarding the status of this elk population and potential effects of predators. To address these concerns, Fish, Wildlife & Parks developed the Integrated Elk, Carnivore, and Habitat Adaptive Management Project. To date, we have collared 101 adult elk and 111 calves (i.e., neonates and 6- month-olds). Based on elk survival estimates through 2024, adult female survival was 0.891 (95% CI = 0.832 – 0.954) and adult male survival was 0.571 (95% CI = 0.301 – 0.1) with leading causes of all adult mortality including harvest (n = 5/15) and mountain lions (n = 3/15). Calf survival was 0.537 (95% CI = 0.377 – 0.764) with leading causes of mortality including mountain lions (n = 10/27) and black bears (n = 6/27). Additionally, during the 2023 rifle season, collared adults (n = 68) had a lower proportion of locations on public lands, compared to other seasons, however, 67% of females and 100% of males spent the majority of time on public lands. While initial results provide information about vital rates and distributions, data collection is ongoing with captures scheduled through 2025. Ultimately, our goal is to better understand factors driving elk population dynamics and develop tools to facilitate elk and carnivore management.