Item: TOWARDS A DICTIONARY OF AVALANCHE FORECASTING – DESCRIBING SOME KEY TERMS
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Title: TOWARDS A DICTIONARY OF AVALANCHE FORECASTING – DESCRIBING SOME KEY TERMS
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2023, Bend, Oregon
Authors:
- Jürg Schweizer [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
- Benjamin Reuter [ Météo-France, Direction des opérations pour la prévision, Toulouse, France ] [ Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre d'Etudes de la Neige, Grenoble, France ]
- Christoph Mitterer [ Avalanche Warning Service Tyrol, Innsbruck, Austria ]
Date: 2023-10-08
Abstract: Avalanche forecasting is to a large extent a communication challenge. To this end, a good mutual understanding of the underlying concepts and their scientific basis is important. While recent work has paved the way to a more evidenced-based approach, many of the terms used in forecasting still are either loosely defined, not used consistently or clash with colloquial usage. While communication to the public may need compromises, those should not jeopardize consistency with the scientific basis nor with educational practice. For instance, risk, danger and hazard are often used interchangeably, but are not all the same. Snow stability and avalanche release probability (or likelihood of triggering) are key terms in the description of the avalanche danger scale and often are used intertwined, although they do not refer to the same spatial scale. Spatial scales are indeed another pitfall since we are finally interested whether an avalanche will occur on a specific slope. Yet, avalanche forecasting cannot provide the information at that scale. That would mean prediction of timing and location of a single avalanche event. Instead, we actually forecast avalanche activity at the regional scale. Snow stability is a local property at the point scale, yet its frequency distribution is fundamental for characterizing the avalanche danger level. We describe some of the key terms with a particular focus on scale, relate them to research if available, point out some inconsistencies and suggest further clarifications. With this contribution, we aim to stimulate the discussion on consistent definitions and usage of key terms in avalanche forecasting.
Object ID: ISSW2023_O1.01.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Jürg Schweizer
Keywords: avalanche forecasting, snow stability, avalanche probability, avalanche danger level
Page Number(s): 1 - 8
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