Item: Towards the Evaluation of Human Factors in Avalanche Early Warning Systems
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Title: Towards the Evaluation of Human Factors in Avalanche Early Warning Systems
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2016 Proceedings, Breckenridge, CO, USA
Authors:
- Martina Saettele [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland ]
- Michael Bruendl [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland ]
- Kilian Zwirglmaier [ Technische Universität München, Munich, Germany ]
Date: 2016-10-02
Abstract: Early warning systems (EWS) play a crucial role in managing the risks posed by avalanches and other mass-movement processes to settlements and infrastructures. Although guidelines to evaluate the effectiveness of structural protection measures, such as avalanche defense structures, are commonly used in practice, this is not the case for EWS. Recently, a novel framework to evaluate their effectiveness as a function of their reliability was proposed (Sättele et al., 2016). In this framework, the reliability of automated EWS parts is modeled probabilistically in Bayesian Networks (BN) and expressed in terms of the probability of detection and the probability of false alarms. It could be shown that the optimal trade-off between those two strongly depends on the strategy applied to monitor the hazard and the thresholds applied to deliver early warning. Besides this, the results revealed that human factors, such as the risk attitude of decision-makers, are decisive in an EWS evaluation. In this paper, we demonstrate how the influence of human factors on the reliability of avalanche EWS can be assessed quantitatively. In line with established human reliability analysis (HRA) methods, which are frequently applied in industries, such as nuclear power (Kirwan and Ainsworth, 1992), we start with a detailed task analysis. To identify the cognitive tasks required of avalanche experts we conducted structured interviews. From these interviews a generic mental model is derived. The interviews also allowed us to identify the personal and external factors that influence if a task is conducted successfully. To demonstrate a qualitative assessment, nodes of the mental model and personal and external human factors are comprised in an extended BN. Finally, we discuss the potential of, and limitations regarding the integration of human factors into our framework for the evaluation of EWS
Object ID: ISSW16_O10.01.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: early warning system, human factors, reliability, decision-making
Page Number(s): 222-229
Subjects: early warnings human factors decision-making
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