Your search for Keyword "probabilistic"resulted in 12 records.
Back to Home page
- Title: MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW: ENHANCING AVALANCHE FORECASTING WITH REAL-TIME PRECIPITATION PHASE DATA
- Date: 2024-09-23
- Authors: Anne Heggli, David Reichel, Brian Brong, Benjamin Hatchett, Nayoung Hur, Meghan Collins, Keith Jennings, Monica Arienzo
- Description: Both minor and major rain-on-snow events can create a weak layer in the snowpack or reduce snowpack stability, increasing the potential for avalanche ...
- Object ID: ISSW2024_P1.13.pdf
- Keywords: snow level, probabilistic forecast, precipitation phase, sierra nevada
- View additional details about MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW: ENHANCING AVALANCHE FORECASTING WITH REAL-TIME PRECIPITATION PHASE DATA
- Title: SITE-SPECIFIC PROBALISTIC FORECAST FOR AVALANCHES IN HOLMBUKTURA, LYNGEN, NORWAY
- Date: 2024-09-23
- Authors: Benjamin Sigbjørnsen, Eivind S. Juvik
- Description: Local avalanche forecasting in Norway today is a manual warning issued by a forecaster based on observations of the snow quality and the weather, weat...
- Object ID: ISSW2024_P1.20.pdf
- Keywords: probabilistic forecasting, ensemble model, random forests, avalanches
- View additional details about SITE-SPECIFIC PROBALISTIC FORECAST FOR AVALANCHES IN HOLMBUKTURA, LYNGEN, NORWAY
- Title: A PROBABILITY-BASED MODELLING APPROACH BEYOND A FEW SELECTED RETURN PERIODS FOR COMPREHENSIVE AND ROBUST HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT
- Date: 2024-09-23
- Authors: Jan Kleinn, Yves Bühler, Julia Glaus, Dörte Aller, Catherine Berger, Michael Rinderer, Nils Hählen, Adrian Peter, Corinne Singeisen
- Description: We present an innovative modelling approach, which allows to derive probability-based
hazard information at any location in avalanche-prone areas. Su...
- Object ID: ISSW2024_O7.7.pdf
- Keywords: hazard modelling, risk modelling, probabilistic modelling, avalanche hazard, avalanche risk, loss-frequency-curves
- View additional details about A PROBABILITY-BASED MODELLING APPROACH BEYOND A FEW SELECTED RETURN PERIODS FOR COMPREHENSIVE AND ROBUST HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT
- Title: PROTOTYPE OF PROBABILISTIC AVALANCHE HAZARD MAP REFLECTING UNCERTAINTIES OF SNOW COVER CONDITIONS DURING WINTER
- Date: 2024-09-23
- Authors: Takahiro Tanabe, Sojiro Sunako, Kouichi Nishimura
- Description: Snow avalanches are natural disasters that occur in snowy mountainous regions, threatening settlements and their inhabitants. Hence, a hazard map is a...
- Object ID: ISSW2024_P7.4.pdf
- Keywords: probabilistic hazard map, uncertainty quantification, hazard assessment, risk assessment
- View additional details about PROTOTYPE OF PROBABILISTIC AVALANCHE HAZARD MAP REFLECTING UNCERTAINTIES OF SNOW COVER CONDITIONS DURING WINTER
- Title: IMPROVING AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BACKCOUNTRY SKI TOURS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE NOVEL SLABS METHOD WITH EXISTING METHODS.
- Date: 2024-09-23
- Authors: Bart Degraeuwe, Günter Schmudlach, Kurt Winkler, Jochen Köhler
- Description: The main danger to which backcountry skiers are exposed are dry slab avalanches triggered by skiers themselves. This study introduces SLABS (Screening...
- Object ID: ISSW2024_P12.2.pdf
- Keywords: backcountry skiing, avalanche, probabilistic methods, generalised additive model
- View additional details about IMPROVING AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BACKCOUNTRY SKI TOURS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE NOVEL SLABS METHOD WITH EXISTING METHODS.
- Title: SPECIALIZED PROBABILISTIC MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECASTS IN SUPPORT OF SNOW SAFETY AND AVALANCHE MITIGATION EFFORTS
- Date: 2023-10-08
- Authors: Michael E. Wessler, David Church, Allister Martinelli
- Description: The National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Salt Lake City has a longstanding public-private partnership with the Utah Departm...
- Object ID: ISSW2023_P1.35.pdf
- Keywords: weather forecast, probabilistic forecast, operational forecast, national weather service, decision support, bias correction
- View additional details about SPECIALIZED PROBABILISTIC MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECASTS IN SUPPORT OF SNOW SAFETY AND AVALANCHE MITIGATION EFFORTS
- Title: How reliable are design avalanche loads? A systematic approach to estimate their uncertainty
- Date: 2018-10-07
- Authors: Mark Schaer, Katharina Fischer, Stefan Margreth
- Description: The assessment of avalanche loads depends partly on well-founded facts such as observed avalanches, but the avalanche expert generally also has to mak...
- Object ID: ISSW2018_P02.14.pdf
- Keywords: avalanche loads, avalanche dynamic simulations, snow shed, probabilistic approach, failure probability, building codes.
- View additional details about How reliable are design avalanche loads? A systematic approach to estimate their uncertainty
- Title: A Bayesian approach to consider uncertainties in avalanche simulation
- Date: 2018-10-07
- Authors: Andreas Kofler, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Andreas Huber, Martin Mergili, Wolfgang Fellin, Michael Oberguggenberger
- Description: Over the last decades, an increasing number of software tools for modelling rapid mass flows (e.g. avalanches, debris flows) has been developed, teste...
- Object ID: ISSW2018_P08.19.pdf
- Keywords: bayes’ theorem, metropolis-hastings algorithm, parameter estimation, probabilistic simulation, posterior distribution, back calculation, prediction
- View additional details about A Bayesian approach to consider uncertainties in avalanche simulation
- Title: Probabilistics reloaded? A detailed avalanche accident analysis based on the snowcard
- Date: 2018-10-07
- Authors: Wolfgang Behr, Jan Mersch
- Description: So called "probabilistic methods" to take decisions in avalanche terrain have become a permanent element of avalanche trainings. However, as far as we...
- Object ID: ISSW2018_P15.2.pdf
- Keywords: decision-Âmaking, risk management, decision under risk, intuition, probabilistic methods, reduction methods, avalanche accidents, avalanche terrain, snowcard, grm
- View additional details about Probabilistics reloaded? A detailed avalanche accident analysis based on the snowcard
- Title: Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Snoqualimie Pass Avalanche Bridges
- Date: 2014-09-29
- Authors: Alan Jones, Greg Johnson, Kevin Dusenberry
- Description: Interstate 90 is a primary transportation corridor that crosses the Cascade Mountains at Snoqualmie Pass, Washington, USA. The highway is currently un...
- Object ID: ISSW14_paper_O10.01.pdf
- Keywords: highway, bridges, quantitative risk assessment, probabilistic, monte carlo
- View additional details about Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Snoqualimie Pass Avalanche Bridges
- Title: Finite Element Models and Sensitivity Analysis of the Vulnerability of an Avalanche Protection Gallery
- Date: 2009
- Authors: Dominique Daudon, Julien Baroth, Patrycja Szczurowska, Ma Ying, Pascal Perrotin
- Description: Our research work has focused on the Montaulever avalanche protection gallery.
Horizontal and vertical structural elements are modelled herein using ...
- Object ID: issw-2009-0587-0591.pdf
- Keywords: avalanche protection gallery, finite element model, probabilistic sensitivity study
- View additional details about Finite Element Models and Sensitivity Analysis of the Vulnerability of an Avalanche Protection Gallery
- Title: Probabilistic Calibration of Avalanche Block Models
- Date: 2008-09-22
- Authors: Peter Gauer, Zenon Medina-Cetina, Karstein Lied, Krister Kristensen
- Description: The Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) has been operating the full-scale avalanche test-site Ryggfonn in western Norway for more than 25 years. Du...
- Object ID: P__8044.pdf
- Keywords: probabilistic avalanche modeling, bayesian modeling, calibration, prior knowledge, stochastic framework
- View additional details about Probabilistic Calibration of Avalanche Block Models
Back to Home page