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Your search for Keyword "forecasting"resulted in 550 records.

Title: OPERATIONALIZING AVALANCHE-TERRAIN SAR DECISIONS: THE KING COUNTY WINTER RESPONSE TEAM MODEL
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Erik Olson, Brad Hefta-Gaub, Jim Hirshfield
Description: Avalanche-terrain Search and Rescue (SAR) missions in King County, Washington occur across a large and complex operational area. Potential missions sp...
Object ID: ISSW2026_FS3.3.pdf
Keywords: search and rescue, avalanche terrain, mission planning, incident command, avalanche forecasting
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Title: BEING DIFFICULT: STRATEGIES FOR ENCOURAGING DISSENT FROM COLLEAGUES AND STAFF IN THE A.M. FORECAST MEETING
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Jenna Malone
Description: Cognitive science and psychology have long explored how individuals can ignore or reinterpret crucial information to reinforce their existing beliefs....
Object ID: ISSW2026_FS3.7.pdf
Keywords: dissent, psychological safety, avalanche forecasting, decision-making, crew resource management, groupthink
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Title: TOWARDS REAL-TIME FRACTIONATION OF MIXED-PHASE PRECIPITATION
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Eric R. Pardyjak, Dhiraj K. Singh, Daniel Webster, Benjamin H. Silberman, Timothy Garrett, Travis Morrison
Description: Near-surface precipitation can occur as liquid, solid, or mixed-phase hydrometeors. In many winter storms, individual particles are not purely rain or...
Object ID: ISSW2026_FS4.4.pdf
Keywords: mixed-phase precipitation, deid, avalanche forecasting, rain-on-snow events.
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Title: THIN-SLICING IN AVALANCHE FORECASTING: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF EXPERIENCE-BASED PATTERN RECOGNITION IN OPERATIONAL DECISION MAKING
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Jake M. Hutchinson
Description: This exploratory survey began with a simple operational question: when avalanche professionals first build a hazard picture, does the initial forecast...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O10.2.pdf
Keywords: avalanche forecasting, professional intuition, recognition, decision making, training
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Title: PRACTITIONERS' INTERPRETATION OF AVALANCHE PROBLEM TYPE AND DISTRIBUTION WITHIN THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF AVALANCHE HAZARD
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Aaron C. Barnett, Andrew Forsman, Eeva Latosuo, Ryan Minton
Description: The Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard (CMAH) was created to be a systematic, consistent workflow for avalanche hazard and risk assessment. It is a ...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O10.6.pdf
Keywords: conceptual model of avalanche hazard, decision aid, avalanche forecasting, expert interpretation, avalanche type, distribution
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Title: A VERY LARGE WET SLAB AVALANCHE SURPRISED US, WHICH IS FUNNY BECAUSE THE SAME THING HAPPENED 31 YEARS EARLIER
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Tully Hamer, Sean Fallon, Jeff Bristow, Aleph Johnston-Bloom
Description: Wet slab avalanches at Alyeska Ski Resort in Girdwood, Alaska, have historically caused significant infrastructure damage and are among the most unpre...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O11.1.pdf
Keywords: wet slabs, operational forecasting, crusts, mental models
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Title: THE DANGER ZONE
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Steve Conger, Colin Zacharias
Description: Too many avalanche workers have made the decision to position themselves or coworkers, helicopters, snowcats, or vehicles, in the run out of an avalan...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O11.5.pdf
Keywords: risk, relative size, destructive size, forecasting, professional incidents, near-miss, full-extent
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Title: A CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR SITE-SPECIFIC ROAD AVALANCHE WARNING IN NORWAY
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Markus Eckerstorfer, Emil Solbakken, Halgeir Dahle, Tore Humstad, Njål Farestveit, Jens Øyen Tveit, Eivind Schnell Juvik, Dag Theodor Røsvik Andreassen
Description: Site-specific avalanche warning for roads is a risk-reducing measure that combines an assessment of avalanche likelihood with an impact-based assessme...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O2.1.pdf
Keywords: site-specific avalanche warning, consequence assessment, road avalanche risk, residual risk, impact-based forecasting
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Title: Before machine learning: validating historical SNOWPACK simulations for avalanche hazard forecasting in Glacier National Park, B.C., Canada.
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Benjamin Imbach, Francis Meloche, Jean-Benoit Madore, Paul Billecocq, Francis Gauthier, Alexandre Langlois, Philippe Gachon
Description: Accurate avalanche hazard forecasting depends on reliable snow and weather information, which is often unavailable in the complex mountainous terrain ...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O2.3.pdf
Keywords: avalanche forecasting, snowpack/alpine3d, model validation, weak layer identification, meteorological forcing data, glacier national park
View additional details about Before machine learning: validating historical SNOWPACK simulations for avalanche hazard forecasting in Glacier National Park, B.C., Canada.

Title: THE AVALANCHE IMPACT SCALE: A QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR FORECASTING AND RECORDING IMPACTS ON INFRASTRUCTURE, COMMUNITIES AND WORKSITE SAFETY
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Bree Stefanson, Ryan Boyle
Description: Effective risk management in avalanche-prone terrain requires a clear understanding of how avalanche activity interacts with specific elements at risk...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O2.6.pdf
Keywords: forecasting, recording, communication, risk, management, standardization
View additional details about THE AVALANCHE IMPACT SCALE: A QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR FORECASTING AND RECORDING IMPACTS ON INFRASTRUCTURE, COMMUNITIES AND WORKSITE SAFETY

Title: REVISING THE EUROPEAN AVALANCHE DANGER SCALE: PROCESS, FINAL PROPOSAL, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC COMMUNICATION
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Karsten Müller, Frank Techel, Christoph Mitterer, Philip A. Ebert, Ben Reuter, Veronika Krieger, Igor Chiambretti, Anne Dufour, Guillem M. Bellido, Lorenzo Bertranda
Description: The European Avalanche Danger Scale (EADS) is the central framework for communicating regional avalanche danger in Europe. Since its introduction in 1...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O3.3.pdf
Keywords: avalanche danger scale; avalanche hazard; risk communication; avalanche forecasting; eaws; european avalanche warning services
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Title: CONSIDERATIONS FOR EFFECTIVE UNCERTAINTY COMMUNICATION IN PUBLIC AVALANCHE FORECASTS
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Eeva Latosuo, Pascal Haegeli, Julie Demuth, Stan Nowak, Ethan Greene
Description: Uncertainty is fundamental to avalanche risk management, yet public avalanche forecasts have not communicated it as consistently as other hazard chara...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O3.4.pdf
Keywords: avalanche risk communication, uncertainty, public avalanche forecasting, user research
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Title: FORECASTING STORM-SNOW AVALANCHES USING A COMBINED SHEAR AND ANTICRACK INSTABILITY MATRIX
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Benjamin H. Silberman, Eric R. Pardyjak, Dhiraj K. Singh, Jim Steenburgh, Steven Clark, Travis Morrison, Jack Eskeland
Description: Forecasting storm-snow avalanches remain challenging due to limited access to the mechanical properties of snow during active snowfall and the lack of...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O4.3.pdf
Keywords: avalanche forecasting, storm-snow, anticrack, shear strength, stability index, densification
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Title: A PRACTITIONER'S PERSPECTIVE ON TOOLS FOR UNDERSTANDING WIND FIELDS, SNOW DRIFT, AND SNOW DISTRIBUTION
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Holt Hancock, Kjersti Gisnås, Peter Gauer, Nikolas Aksamit, Anna Poltronieri, Christian Jaedicke, Anders Kleiven
Description: Understanding how, where, and when snow accumulates due to blowing and drifting snow processes plays a key role in avalanche forecasting, hazard mappi...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O4.5.pdf
Keywords: snow drift, blowing snow, wind, avalanche forecasting, planning.
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Title: AVALANCHE PATH-SPECIFIC CRITICAL WIND ENVELOPES FOR START-ZONE LOADING IN COMPLEX TERRAIN
Date: 2026-09-28
Authors: Seth Hewie, Eirik Sharp
Description: Wind loading is a key mechanism of slab avalanche formation, and forecasting requires detailed local terrain and climatological knowledge. Models of w...
Object ID: ISSW2026_O4.7.pdf
Keywords: weather forecasting and climate, avalanche forecasting, avalanche formation, terrain
View additional details about AVALANCHE PATH-SPECIFIC CRITICAL WIND ENVELOPES FOR START-ZONE LOADING IN COMPLEX TERRAIN