Item: Potential Impacts of Climate Change or U.S. Wastach Range Ski Areas: Projections for Park City Mountain Resort in 2030, 2050, and 2075
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Title: Potential Impacts of Climate Change or U.S. Wastach Range Ski Areas: Projections for Park City Mountain Resort in 2030, 2050, and 2075
Proceedings: 2010 International Snow Science Workshop
Authors:
- Brian Lazar [ Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, Colorado ] [ American Institute of Avalanche Research and Education, Gunnison, Colorado ]
- Mark W. Williams [ Department of Geography and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado ]
Date: 2010
Abstract: We evaluate the potential impacts to snow coverage and depth from anthropogenic climate change at Park City Mountain Resort in 2030, 2050, and 2075. Snow coverage was evaluated using the Snowmelt Runoff Model, and snow depth was estimated empirically via the relationship to snow coverage. We estimated climate changes (temperature and precipitation) using MAGICC/SCENGEN and the output from seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. This study uses current and improved GCM output to update previous projections in Park City. We bracketed potential climate changes by using the relatively low, midrange, and high GHG emissions scenarios: B1, A1B, and A1FI, respectively. By 2030, temperatures are estimated to increase 1.1 to 2.1°C at Park City Mountain, and the length of the ski season is estimated to decrease by approximately one week due to earlier spring melt at the base area. In 2050, temperatures are estimated to increase 1.4 to 3.7°C, and skiing on or before Thanksgiving and after mid-March may not be possible at the ski area base. By 2075, temperatures are estimated to increase 1.9 to 6.1°C, and snowmelt is projected to occur periodically throughout the ski season. Skiing on or before Thanksgiving and after mid-March by 2075 is unlikely at the base area for all emission scenarios, and the snowline is estimated at an elevation of 2,450 m under the A1FI emission scenario, an increase of approximately 400 m from current conditions.
Object ID: ISSW_P-023.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Unknown
Keywords: climate change, snow, park city, ski areas, general circulation models, wasatch
Page Number(s): 436-443
Subjects: climate change wasatch range ski areas snow coverage
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