Item: A MULTI-STEP AVALANCHE RISK FRAMEWORK FOR THE QUANTIFICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON LARGE SCALE AVALANCHE HAZARD
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Title: A MULTI-STEP AVALANCHE RISK FRAMEWORK FOR THE QUANTIFICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON LARGE SCALE AVALANCHE HAZARD
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2024, Tromsø, Norway
Authors:
- Gregor Ortner [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ] [ Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Centre CERC, Davos, Switzerland ] [ Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland ]
- Michael Bründl [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ] [ Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Centre CERC, Davos, Switzerland ]
- David N. Bresch [ Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland ] [ Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland ]
Date: 2024-09-23
Abstract: Specific impacts of climate change on snow avalanche risk for inhabited areas are largely unknown and call for further investigation. Numerous studies suggest that expected increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation could have significant effects on the release and flow characteristics of snow avalanches. To assess the possible consequences of potential changes in snow accumulation and temperature and their subsequent impact on avalanche hazard and risk, we introduce a comprehensive framework for modelling avalanche risk at large scale, incorporating climate change scenarios. By applying a down-scaling procedure, we processed data from the CH2018 Swiss climate change scenarios within the extreme RCP8.5 emission scenario considering six different climate model chains. This data set is used to simulate potential snowcovers of 100 future winters for each of the selected model chain with the physical snowcover model SNOWPACK. Return period scenarios with future avalanche fracture depths are defined for the mid (2060) and end of the century (2085) by applying methods of extreme value statistics. Within these periods, potential future snowcover temperatures are analyzed and compared. The changed parameters serve as input for the research version of the established avalanche simulation software RAMMS. Generated large scale hazard indication maps are combined with the probabilistic risk assessment platform CLIMADA. The output are spatially explicit hazard and risk maps that illustrate possible climate change effects on avalanche risk and allow the quantification of potential future changes. Avalanche risk maps can illustrate the potential effects of climate change on snow avalanches, thus serving as a foundation for assessing future risk assessment and effective strategies to address climate change-related objectives.
Object ID: ISSW2024_O5.2.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: Climate Change, Avalanche, Risk Assessment, SNOWPACK, RAMMS, Climada, Risk Maps
Page Number(s): 611 - 615
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