Item: AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH FOR SIMULATING EFFECTS OF AVALANCHES ON MOUNTAIN GOAT POPULATION DYNAMICS: IMPLICATIONS FOR MANAGEMENT AND CONSERVATION
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Title: AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH FOR SIMULATING EFFECTS OF AVALANCHES ON MOUNTAIN GOAT POPULATION DYNAMICS: IMPLICATIONS FOR MANAGEMENT AND CONSERVATION
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2024, Tromsø, Norway
Authors:
- Kevin S. White [ Program on the Environment, Department of Natural Sciences, University of Alaska Southeast; Juneau, AK 99801, USA ] [ Department of Geography, University of Victoria; Victoria, BC V8W2Y2, Canada ] [ Division of Wildlife Conservation, Alaska Department of Fish and Game; Juneau, AK 99811, USA (Ret.) ]
- Taal Levi [ Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University; Corvallis, OR 97331, USA ]
- Eran Hood [ Program on the Environment, Department of Natural Sciences, University of Alaska Southeast; Juneau, AK 99801, USA ]
- Gabriel J. Wolken [ Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Program, Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys; Fairbanks, AK 99709, USA ] [ Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks; Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA ]
- Erich H. Peitzsch [ U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center; West Glacier, MT 59936, USA ]
- Yves Bühler [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF; Davos CH-7260, Switzerland ] [ Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Centre CERC; Davos CH- 7260, Switzerland ]
- Katreen Wikstrom Jones [ Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks; Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA ]
- Chris T. Darimont [ Department of Geography, University of Victoria; Victoria, BC V8W2Y2, Canada ]
Date: 2024-09-23
Abstract: Mountain environments with snow avalanche hazard cover about 6% of Earth’s land area and occur on all continents. Whereas human risks associated with avalanche hazard have been widely studied, little is known about how avalanche activity affects population dynamics in mountain wildlife. Globally, thirty-two species of mountain ungulates across 70 countries occupy avalanche-prone terrain. Avalanches comprise the leading cause of mortality in coastal Alaskan mountain goats (mean = 36%, range = 23 – 65%, depending on area), and disproportionately remove prime-aged individuals from populations. The implications of such rates and patterns of mortality on population growth rate are likely to be significant given the species’ low reproductive productivity, but further clarity is needed. To fill this knowledge gap, we developed a sex- and age-specific population modeling approach that integrates both reproduction and mortality to simulate the effects of avalanche-caused mortality on population growth rate across a range of empirically-observed states of avalanche-caused mortality (minimum, mean, maximum). Simulations were conducted to illustrate model functionality, and also provide insight about potential avalanche impacts on population demographic processes. For example, when severe avalanche years occur populations can experience significant additive mortality and declines (up to 15%). Due to low reproductive rates and slow life-history strategy of the species, such impacts can lead to long demographic recovery times (up to 11 years). From a species conservation perspective, such impacts are striking, and highlight the utility of employing a quantitative modeling approach to predict possible effects of avalanches on mountain ungulate population dynamics and viability. Our work explicitly builds upon recent findings about the importance of avalanches on mountain-adapted animal populations, and associated implications for the cultural and ecological communities that depend on them.
Object ID: ISSW2024_O4.4.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: avalanche, Alaska, mountain goat, Oreamnos americanus, population modeling
Page Number(s): 578 - 586
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