Item: Trend Analysis of Canadian Avalanche Accidents: The Avaluator Avalanche Accident Prevention Card Has Not Reduced the Number of Accidents
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Title: Trend Analysis of Canadian Avalanche Accidents: The Avaluator Avalanche Accident Prevention Card Has Not Reduced the Number of Accidents
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop, Davos 2009, Proceedings
Authors:
- Bob Uttl [ Mount Royal College, Calgary, AB, Canada ]
- Mekale Kibreab [ University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada ]
- Kelly Kisinger [ University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada ]
- Jan Uttl [ Avidata.ca, Cochrane, AB, Canada ]
Date: 2009
Abstract: The Avaluator Avalanche Accident Prevention Card (Haegeli & McCammon, 2006), a Canadian government avalanche prevention initiative, was designed to help recreationists avoid accidents, and therefore, to reduce the overall number of avalanche accidents in Canada involving recreational users. McCammon and Haegeli (2006) argued that the Avaluator will cause a statistically detectable reduction in the number of avalanche accidents within 3 or 4 seasons after its adoption. However, research has revealed that (a) the data behind the Avaluator's Obvious Clues are not available for inspection (Uttl, Uttl, & Henry, 2008; Floyer, 2008); (b) Haegeli and McCammon (2006) inappropriately excluded over 1,148 avalanche accident reports from their sample due to missing values and based the prevention values on only 252 US accidents; (c) several independent studies have found the Obvious Clues prevention values published in the Avaluator to be grossly inflated (Uttl, Henry, & Uttl, 2008a,b; Floyer, 2008; Uttl, Kisinger, Kibreab, & Uttl, 2009). We examined McCammon and Haegeli's (2006) prediction. Our trend analysis of avalanche accidents in Canada revealed that the number of accidents has sharply increased rather than decreased following the Avaluator's adoption.This increase is consistent with findings that the Avaluator's prevention values are grossly inflated and give users a false sense of confidence in slope stability.
Object ID: issw-2009-0610-0613.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Unknown
Keywords: avaluator, obvious clues, avalanche accident trends, avalanche fatalities
Page Number(s): 610-613
Subjects: canadian avalanche accidents accident prevention card avalanche fatalities
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