Item: A NEW OPERATIONAL APPROACH FOR THE DAILY ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL AVALANCHE DANGER
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Title: A NEW OPERATIONAL APPROACH FOR THE DAILY ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL AVALANCHE DANGER
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2024, Tromsø, Norway
Authors:
- Alberto Mariani [ Alpsolut srl, Università degli studi dell'Insubria ]
- Luca Dellarole [ Alpsolut srl ]
- Giacomo Villa [ Alpsolut srl ]
- Jacopo Borsotti [ Università di Parma ]
- Fabiano Monti [ Alpsolut srl, Università degli studi dell'Insubria ]
Date: 2024-09-23
Abstract: Over the past 20 years, the need to identify the spatial distribution of avalanche-prone areas, crucial for evaluating the avalanche risk, has led to the development of several automatic algorithms to detect Potential Avalanche Release Areas (PRAs) and assess terrain predispositions to avalanche release. These algorithms, combined with avalanche dynamic simulations, are widely employed for producing hazard indication maps in mountainous regions. These approaches are rarely used for supporting avalanche forecasting and operational risk mitigation, although the hazard spatial distribution remains a fundamental parameter in assessing avalanche danger. Generally, the generated susceptibility maps are mainly based on terrain characteristics, including predefined snow scenarios. Therefore, they are not suitable for effective operational danger or avalanche risk assessment. In this study, we propose an automated method for identifying slab avalanche release areas, also taking into account the time-specific stability conditions of the local snow cover. This approach was used to calculate the daily potential slab avalanche activity during the winter season 2023-2024 for the Livigno municipality, in the Central Italian Alps. At first, a fuzzy logic approach is used to evaluate the morphological susceptibility of terrain to avalanche release. Then, the current spatialized snowpack stability condition, derived from the SNOWPACK model simulations, is integrated into the results. In particular, stability indices related to the different Typical Avalanche Problems were selected and integrated, always with a fuzzy logic approach, in the previously calculated avalanche release susceptibility of the terrain. Finally, avalanche release areas are used as input for dynamic avalanche simulations. The proposed approach addresses all factors influencing avalanche danger. For each Typical Avalanche Problem, information related to snowpack stability, frequency distribution and expected avalanche size are calculated and showed to the avalanche forecasters. Preliminary results show the potential of the proposed approach to support avalanche forecasters in both avalanche danger prediction and risk assessment. Although further refinements are still needed, this method represents a significant step towards the creation of a more operational tool capable of providing daily assessments of potential avalanche activity, improving its integration into the avalanche forecasting process.
Object ID: ISSW2024_P1.8.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: avalanche hazard indication maps, Potential Release Areas, snowpack stability, avalanche forecasting
Page Number(s): 116 - 123
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