Item: ANALYZING AUTOMATED AND METEOROLOGIST-DERIVED QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS: OPERATIONAL APPLICATIONS IN HIGHWAY AVALANCHE FORECASTING PROGRAMS
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Title: ANALYZING AUTOMATED AND METEOROLOGIST-DERIVED QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS: OPERATIONAL APPLICATIONS IN HIGHWAY AVALANCHE FORECASTING PROGRAMS
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2024, Tromsø, Norway
Authors:
- John Stimberis [ Washington State Department of Transportation, USA ]
- Seth Waterfall [ Washington State Department of Transportation, USA ]
- Rachel Griffith [ University of Manchester, UK ]
Date: 2024-09-23
Abstract: Mountain weather significantly influences avalanche activity in maritime snow climates. The rapid accumulation of precipitation from snow or rain-on-snow events can quickly meet the critical loading threshold of the snowpack. Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) play a critical role in predicting the timing of such events, provided they deliver reasonable volume and temporally dependable accuracy. A comparative analysis of two QPF forecast products, presenting water volume in 6-hour intervals, sheds light on their accuracy over 72 hours. Avalanche forecasting programs often establish operational thresholds for avalanche activity. By examining the time scale and loading volume necessary to reach these thresholds, forecasters can assess the applicability of various accuracy levels in operational settings. Reliable multi-day precipitation forecasts, with acceptable accuracy, contribute significantly to operational decision-making, planning, and avalanche safety. Analyzing forecast evolution, comparing these forecasts with actual water accumulation, and correlating meteorological inputs with observed avalanche activity from highway corridor avalanche paths form the foundation for this analysis and its associated outcomes.
Object ID: ISSW2024_O1.4.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): John Stimberis
Keywords: Avalanche Forecasting, Weather Forecasting, Weather Data, Forecast Accuracy, Highways, Precipitation.
Page Number(s): 20 - 25
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