Item: UNDER-FORECASTING WET AVALANCHE CYCLES: CASE STUDIES AND LESSONS LEARNED FROM TWO WET AVALANCHE CYCLES IN NORTHWEST MONTANA AND CENTRAL COLORADO
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Title: UNDER-FORECASTING WET AVALANCHE CYCLES: CASE STUDIES AND LESSONS LEARNED FROM TWO WET AVALANCHE CYCLES IN NORTHWEST MONTANA AND CENTRAL COLORADO
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2023, Bend, Oregon
Authors:
- Zachary M. Guy [ Crested Butte Avalanche Center, Crested Butte, CO, USA ]
- Erich Peitzsch [ U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, MT, USA ]
Date: 2023-10-08
Abstract: Predicting the timing and location of natural wet avalanche events is challenging, especially the release of wet slabs. In this study, we describe the existing snowpack structure, weather, and observed avalanche activity for two separate wet avalanche cycles in different avalanche climate types: northwest Montana and central Colorado. In both cases, the regional avalanche forecast centers initially predicted an avalanche hazard rating lower than the observed avalanche hazard and did not initially predict the occurrence of wet slab avalanches. Large wet slab avalanche activity began during the early stages of the first, rapid warming event of the season in both regions, challenging the notion that a lack of overnight refreeze is important for large wet avalanche cycles. This highlights the need for improvement in forecasting wet avalanche events/cycles. Here, we discuss lessons learned and operational strategies for improving forecast accuracy during significant melting events. These include focused field assessments in shallow snowpack areas and low elevation terrain, proactive late-day monitoring beyond normal field hours, and additional meteorological considerations, such as cloud cover and energy balance assessments, prior to and during notable warm-ups
Object ID: ISSW2023_O11.01.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Zachary M Guy
Keywords: wet slabs, forecasting, wet avalanches
Page Number(s): 1082 - 1092
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