Item: THE EVOLUTION OF RISK PERCEPTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-PROBABILITY-HIGH-CONSEQUENCE EVENTS
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Title: THE EVOLUTION OF RISK PERCEPTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-PROBABILITY-HIGH-CONSEQUENCE EVENTS
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2023, Bend, Oregon
Authors:
- Terry Eyland [ Department of Economics, Bishop’s University, Qc, Canada ]
Date: 2023-10-08
Abstract: During the 2022-23 winter in western Canada, most avalanche fatalities were attributed to the early season, deeply buried persistent weak layer (PWL). Certain human factors papers have examined the impact of adjusting components of the risk perception and hazard mitigation equation while others have focused on biases and heuristics. As far as we know, studying how one's risk perception evolves over time and through a winter season has not been studied. Specifically, this study explores how one's perception of the probability and the size of a low-probability-high-consequence (LPHC) avalanche problem evolves, particularly when presented with false-negative hazard assessments. As the winter season evolves and evidence or clues of a LPHC avalanche problem become less frequent, at what point does a risk that was unacceptable earlier become acceptable, if at all? How and why can someone start perceiving a 'considerable' day as if it was a 'moderate' day? The study focuses on three factors that affect risk perception over time: internal events and experience, external information and media, and group debriefs. The paper proposes a model to represent how the perception of risk evolves. Due to the inherent nature of avalanches, with more false negatives than false positives, and how information is obtained, there is a bias towards perceiving the situation as less dangerous. We conclude by offering policy proposals to aid individuals in maintaining a perception closer to the actual danger rather than relying on unfortunate events to bring their perception of danger back in line.
Object ID: ISSW2023_O8.05.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Terry Eyland
Keywords: risk perception, negative event feedback, avalanche education, decision making, trend effects, human error
Page Number(s): 632 - 639
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