Item: SPECIALIZED PROBABILISTIC MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECASTS IN SUPPORT OF SNOW SAFETY AND AVALANCHE MITIGATION EFFORTS
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Title: SPECIALIZED PROBABILISTIC MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECASTS IN SUPPORT OF SNOW SAFETY AND AVALANCHE MITIGATION EFFORTS
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2023, Bend, Oregon
Authors:
- Michael E. Wessler [ National Weather Service, Salt Lake City, UT, USA ]
- David Church [ National Weather Service, Salt Lake City, UT, USA ]
- Allister Martinelli [ National Weather Service, Salt Lake City, UT, USA ]
Date: 2023-10-08
Abstract: The National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Salt Lake City has a longstanding public-private partnership with the Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) Avalanche Program, the Utah Avalanche Center, as well as Alta and Snowbird Snow Safety teams to provide a highly specialized twice-daily mountain weather forecast for heavily trafficked and avalanche-prone Little Cottonwood Canyon and Provo Canyon. The NWS aims to work closely with core partners to deliver user-specific, actionable forecasts that provide value to their operational decision-making. A novel, fully probabilistic mountain weather forecast communicates the range of potential outcomes for a range of forecast variables and communicates valuable uncertainty in timing and intensity. Robust statistics back each probabilistic field, leveraging the extensive amounts of ensemble forecast information available. This forecast product is unique in its collaborative design through input and feedback from the end-user, the ability of the forecaster to shift the probabilistic output while maintaining valuable uncertainty information, and the ability to automate the product allowing for the future expansion to other locations of interest across Utah and beyond. This next-generation probabilistic mountain weather forecast serves as a template that aims to improve our level of service across the board.
Object ID: ISSW2023_P1.35.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Michael E. Wessler
Keywords: weather forecast, probabilistic forecast, operational forecast, national weather service, decision support, bias correction
Page Number(s): 333 - 340
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