Item: ASSESSING AVALANCHE PROBLEMS FOR OPERATIONAL AVALANCHE FORECASTING BASED ON DIFFERENT MODEL CHAINS
-
-
Title: ASSESSING AVALANCHE PROBLEMS FOR OPERATIONAL AVALANCHE FORECASTING BASED ON DIFFERENT MODEL CHAINS
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2023, Bend, Oregon
Authors:
- Martin Perfler [ Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria ] [ Avalanche Warning Service Tyrol, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Michael Binder [ Avalanche Warning Service Tyrol, Innsbruck, Austria ] [ Institute of Atmospheric Physics, German Aerospace Center, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ]
- Benjamin Reuter [ Meteo-France, Direction des operations pour la prevision, Toulouse, France ] [ Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. de Toulouse, Meteo-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre d’Etudes de la Neige, Grenoble, France ]
- Rainer Prinz [ Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Christoph Mitterer [ Avalanche Warning Service Tyrol, Innsbruck, Austria ]
Date: 2023-10-08
Abstract: Snow-cover models were initially developed to assist with operational avalanche forecasting, but the full potential has yet to be exploited. There are excellent possibilities for filtering and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information. Therefore, researchers intend to provide easy-to-grasp visualizations to facilitate the integration of snow-cover models into the forecaster's workflow. In recent years, avalanche forecasting services have transitioned into a rather process-based workflow of regional avalanche danger, which starts with identifying the prevailing avalanche problems. We adapted a post-processing algorithm to support this approach and used snow cover model data to assess avalanche problems. The algorithm is solely based on the snow cover model output and, thus, capable of providing an avalanche problem nowcast and forecast with various model chains. For the winter season 2021/22, SNOWPACK simulations driven by an automated weather station in a region of Tyrol in the Austrian Alps, modeled avalanche problems show a fairly similar behavior as the forecaster's assessment. Looking into detail, the model assigns a Persistent Weak Layer Problem earlier but for a shorter period. Furthermore, the algorithm provides valuable information to time the Wet Snow Problem in individual aspects. Overall, these algorithm demonstrates models' benefit in deciding when and where problems develop and for how long they are critical. Our work aims to merge traditional forecasting with the modeling world to pave the way toward the integration of automatic avalanche problem identification.
Object ID: ISSW2023_O4.05.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Martin Perfler
Keywords: avalanche problems, SNOWPACK, simulations, forecasting, model chains, avalanche danger assessment
Page Number(s): 128 - 134
-