Item: Do trends in forecasted avalanche danger affect our perception of the current avalanche hazard
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Title: Do trends in forecasted avalanche danger affect our perception of the current avalanche hazard
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria
Authors:
- Finn K. Hovem [ Department of Engineering and Safety, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway ]
- Andrea Mannberg [ School of Business and Economics, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway ] [ Center for Avalanche Research and Education, Tromsø, Norway ]
- Jens A. Terum [ Department of Engineering and Safety, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway ]
Date: 2018-10-07
Abstract: Avalanche forecasts are useful for both professional and recreational backcountry travelers seeking to mitigate avalanche risk. In this paper, we analyze if and how trends in forecasted avalanche danger affect the perception of present danger. To do this, we randomly placed 63 individuals, who work in an environment exposed to avalanches, into two groups. Each group answered questions in response to two different scenarios: one scenario with an increasing trend in forecasted avalanche danger (from level 2 to level 3), the other scenario with a decreasing trend in forecasted avalanche danger (from level 4 to level 3). To identify the effect of trends in forecasted avalanche danger, we compared the mean difference in perceived danger between scenarios. Our results show that participants on average perceive the avalanche hazard to be higher if the forecasted danger goes from level 4 to level 3, than if it goes from level 2 to level 3. The amount of avalanche information presented does not affect the results. In order to improve risk communication and understanding of decision making in regard to avalanche hazards, the observed effect needs to be further understood.
Object ID: ISSW2018_P17.2.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords:
Page Number(s): 1548-1552
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