Item: Words of Estimative Probability and the Language of the North American publich Avalanche Danger Scale. Are We All Communicating the Same Risk?
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Title: Words of Estimative Probability and the Language of the North American publich Avalanche Danger Scale. Are We All Communicating the Same Risk?
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria
Authors:
- Jimmy Tart [ Park City Snow Safety, Park City Powder Cats, Ski Arpa, Park City, Utah, USA ]
Date: 2018-10-07
Abstract: I have been wondering about something for years; the North American Avalanche Danger Scale uses words of estimative probability such as "certain" and "possible" in the avalanche forecast in regard to the likeliness of triggering an avalanche. Are we really in agreement on what these words mean? To help answer my question, I created a study that shows this variance in perceived values. My study consisted of five questions regarding the perceived probabilities of each of the following words from the Likelihood of Triggering section of the North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale; "certain", "very likely", "likely", "possible" and "unlikely". In addition to these five questions, there were three questions to establish the respondents’ profession and experience with statistics and probability. The distribution of the questionnaire was intended to reach not just Avalanche Professionals and recreational backcountry avalanche terrain users, but also segments of the professional world that involve risk management and that have embraced probabilistic thinking. Doctors, nurses, securities traders, pilots and firefighters were all targeted in the initial distribution. Survey responses showed that while we humans all are thinking similarly about the probability attached to the word "certain", as the scale descends toward "unlikely" the range of responses increases and the distribution of answers widens regardless of profession or level of training. Furthermore and most interesting, professional avalanche workers don't have a more uniform distribution of responses than do recreationalists, medical professionals or people with formal training in statistics and probabilities. I propose that using data analysis from this study and an adoption of practices common in the intelligence analysis world we could advance our collective communication skills. More specifically we could improve our collective risk assessments and communication by fostering agreement on the words of estimative probability that are key to using the current North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale.
Object ID: ISSW2018_O17.9.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: Forecast, Risk Communication,Behavioral Economics
Page Number(s): 1531-1535
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