Item: First attempt at prediction of avalanches resulting from no rimed falling snow crystals in Japan
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Title: First attempt at prediction of avalanches resulting from no rimed falling snow crystals in Japan
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria
Authors:
- Kazuki Nakamura [ Innovation Center for Meteorological Disaster Mitigation, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Nagaoka, Japan ] [ Shinjo Cryospheric Environment Laboratory, Snow and Ice Research Center, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Shinjo, Japan ]
- Satoru Yamaguchi [ Snow and Ice Research Center, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Nagaoka, Japan ]
- Masaki Nemoto [ Shinjo Cryospheric Environment Laboratory, Snow and Ice Research Center, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Shinjo, Japan ]
- Hiroki Motoyoshi [ Snow and Ice Research Center, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Nagaoka, Japan ]
- Isao Kamiishi [ Innovation Center for Meteorological Disaster Mitigation, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Nagaoka, Japan ] [ Snow and Ice Research Center, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Nagaoka, Japan ]
Date: 2018-10-07
Abstract: Predicting avalanches resulting from the fall of unrimed snow crystals is key to mitigating the impacts of avalanche accidents in Japan. However, we do not yet have a sufficient understanding of this type of avalanche. Based on previous studies that assert that the fall of unrimed snow crystals occasionally form at the front of a low-pressure system (cyclone), we attempted to predict unrimed snow crystal avalanches using meteorological conditions. Three meteorological elements, precipitation amount, air temperature, and wind direction, were simulated in this study using a numerical meteorological forecasting model. Using simulated air temperatures and precipitation amounts, the system forecasts the snowfall while classifying whether the simulated synoptic precipitation conditions represent cyclones using the simulated wind direction. By setting up an appropriate threshold for these meteorological elements, the system could successfully predict previous avalanches resulting from the fall of unrimed snow crystal resulting from cyclones. This prediction system is capable of impacts of these types of avalanches in Japan.
Object ID: ISSW2018_P10.21.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: unrimed snow crystal avalanche, avalanche forecasting, fall of unrimed snow crystal, low-pressure systems (cyclone)
Page Number(s): 967-970
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