Item: On combining snow cover and snow instability modelling
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Title: On combining snow cover and snow instability modelling
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria
Authors:
- Benjamin Reuter [ Montana State University, Department of Civil Engineering, 205 Cobleigh Hall, Bozeman, MT 59717, U.S.A. ] [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
- Sascha Bellaire [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
Date: 2018-10-07
Abstract: Snow cover models hold the winter’s meteorological record and develop snow cover properties in time under meteorological forcing. With numerical weather prediction becoming increasingly reliable - even in complex terrain - and recent advances in understanding avalanche release, the time is ripe for a deterministic model chain targeting snow instability forecasting. We use meteorological data from the Weissfluhjoch study plot in Davos, Eastern Switzerland, to run the snow cover model SNOWPACK. At the same site daily snow micro penetrometer measurements are available providing snow mechanical data. The data cover the period from December 2014 to April 2015 when two pronounced weak layers persisted. To assess the potential of snow cover modelling for snow instability prediction during that period we ran a mechanical model with snow cover model output. The mechanical model takes into account failure initiation, crack propagation and slab tensile support during the phase of dynamic crack propagation. Comparison with the snow micro penetrometer data showed that the snow cover model picks up the important weaknesses and reproduces temporal variations of snow instability. Moreover, our modeled snow instability metrics showed a temporal trend similar to what avalanche activity indices suggest. Hence, we believe that combining weather forecasting with snow cover and snow instability modelling is a promising approach to enhance future avalanche forecasting.
Object ID: ISSW2018_P10.15.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: avalanche forecasting, snow cover modeling, snow instability
Page Number(s): 949-953
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