Item: Looking to the Future: Predictions of Climate Change Effects on Avalanches by North American Practitioners
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Title: Looking to the Future: Predictions of Climate Change Effects on Avalanches by North American Practitioners
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria
Authors:
- Chris Wilbur [ Wilbur Engineering, Inc., Durango, CO, USA ]
- Sue Kraus [ Fort Lewis College, Durango, CO, USA ]
Date: 2018-10-07
Abstract: Meteorological data provide a well-defined record of historic climates and climatic trends. Snow avalanche activity, in contrast, has complex contributing factors and is not readily assessed in relation to climate change. Research on climate change effects on avalanche activity is limited, and conclusions vary by region and over time. If current climate warming trends persist or accelerate, the implications for snow avalanche activity could be significant for snow safety professionals, affecting industry, commerce, recreation, transportation and housing. Recognizing the difficulties of objectively assessing regional effects of climate change on avalanches, we sought opinions, observations and predictions from experienced snow-avalanche practitioners in the U.S. and Canada. Survey questions addressed avalanche types, frequencies, sizes, snowpack structure, length of the avalanche season and changes in forests. Some observations and predictions were consistent for all climate zones, including observed and predicted increases in wet and glide avalanches, and reduced avalanches at low-mid elevations. Observed and predicted forest effects varied with latitude and regional climate. Overall, the survey results indicate clear trends for many avalanche parameters due to climate change. The aggregate observed and predicted magnitudes of change over the next 20 to 30 years were described as "slight." While none of us can foresee the future, our combined experience can further our understanding of potential effects of climate change on avalanches. This will facilitate improved planning, infrastructure investments and guide future observations related to climate change and snow avalanches.
Object ID: ISSW2018_P06.7.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: climate change, snow avalanches, North America
Page Number(s): 557-560
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