International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: Relating Avalanches to Large-Scale Ocean – Atmospheric Oscillations

• • Title: Relating Avalanches to Large-Scale Ocean – Atmospheric Oscillations

    Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2014 Proceedings, Banff, Canada

    Authors:

    • Scott Thumlert  [ Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, AB, Canada ]
    • Sascha Bellaire  [ Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Innsbruck, Tyrol, Austria ]
    • Bruce Jamieson  [ Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, AB, Canada ]

    Date: 2014-09-29

    Abstract: Sea surface temperatures and sea-level pressures in the Pacific and Arctic oceans have been shown to affect weather patterns in western Canada, thus they can affect the snow avalanche activity. Major oscillations of sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure have been shown to exist on the 2 to 15 year time-scales. In this paper, avalanche data from over 17,800 avalanches recorded from six different roadways in western Canada were analyzed with respect to several of these oscillations. We studied the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, Pacific / North American Pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Larger and more frequent avalanche activity was found during the Pacific Decadal Oscillation negative phase and during the El Nino Southern Oscillation negative phase (La Niña) for avalanches classified as dry. Conversely, avalanches classified as wet increased during the Pacific Decadal Oscillation positive phase and during the El Nino Southern Oscillation positive phase (El Niño). The Artic Oscillation correlated positively with all wet and dry avalanche activity (not significant). Understanding the relationship between avalanche activity in western Canada and these oscillations provides some advanced prediction of general avalanche climate which is helpful for planning avalanche hazard mitigation programs. Finally, global climate change is likely to affect these climate oscillations; thus, the relationship between avalanche activity and these climate oscillations provides some insight into how avalanche activity could be affected by climate change.

    Object ID: ISSW14_paper_P1.19.pdf

    Language of Article: English

    Presenter(s):

    Keywords: Avalanche forecasting, El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, Pacific North American Pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation

    Page Number(s): 522-526

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