Item: Real Time Snow Slope Stability Modeling of Direct Action Avalanches
-
-
Title: Real Time Snow Slope Stability Modeling of Direct Action Avalanches
Proceedings: Proceedings, 2012 International Snow Science Workshop, Anchorage, Alaska
Authors:
- Scott Havens [ Center for Geophysical Investigation of the Shallow Subsurface, Boise State University, Boise, ID ]
- H.P. Marshall [ Center for Geophysical Investigation of the Shallow Subsurface, Boise State University, Boise, ID ]
- Chris Covington [ Utah Department of Transportation, Alta, UT ]
- Bill Nicholson [ Idaho Transportation Department, Lowman, ID ]
- Howard Conway [ Earth and Space Sciences Department, University of Washington, Seattle, WA ]
Date: 2012
Abstract: Improved prediction of the timing of direct action avalanches that occur during storms is needed for highway forecasting operations. A SNOw Slope Stability model (SNOSS) compares the overburden stress caused by new snow to the estimated strength within the new snow. This provides estimates of the stability of the new snow layer and whether a regional direct action avalanche cycle can be expected. For the first time during the winter of 2011/2012, SNOSS was run in real time at Banner Summit, Idaho for the Idaho Transportation Department (ITD) and Little Cottonwood Canyon, Utah for the Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT). SNOSS results were displayed automatically on a webpage hourly, using weather observation downloaded from MESOWEST. Little Cottonwood Canyon has a unique dataset of weather and avalanche observations dating back to the early 1970’s. We investigate SNOSS performance using detailed avalanche observations from avalanche forecasters and infrasound arrays. We present SNOSS model runs for the years 2001-2010 and compare the results to detailed avalanche observations. The results of the study will be used to improve the real time application of SNOSS, to provide a useful tool for avalanche forecasters.
Object ID: issw-2012-866-871.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): unknown
Keywords: direct action avalanche, avalanche observation, snowpack model, meteorological data
Page Number(s): 866-871
Subjects: avalanche forecasting snowpack modeling
-