International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Snow Avalanches Starting in Forested Terrain

• • Title: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Snow Avalanches Starting in Forested Terrain

    Proceedings: Proceedings, 2012 International Snow Science Workshop, Anchorage, Alaska

    Authors:

    • Michaela Teich  [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]  [ Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems PLUS, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, Zurich, Switzerland ]
    • Natalie Zurbriggen  [ Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and L andscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland ]  [ Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, Zurich, Switzerland ]
    • Perry Bartelt  [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
    • Adrienne Grêt-Regamey  [ Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems PLUS, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, Zurich, Switzerland ]
    • Christoph Marty  [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
    • Melanie Ulrich  [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]  [ nstitute of Natural Resources Sciences, Zurich Un iversity of Applied Sciences ZHAW, Waedenswil, Switzerland ]
    • Peter Bebi  [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]

    Date: 2012

    Abstract: Frequency and magnitude of avalanches starting in forested terrain (forest avalanches) are likely to be affected by climate change. We addressed two important developments which will influence the forest avalanche regime: 1) trends in the occurrence of favorable snow and weather situations which increase the probability of forest avalanche releases, and 2) changes in the extent, composition and structure of mountain forests. We applied a logistic trend analysis over 41 years to investigate past changes in the occurrence of snow and weather conditions which are associated with forest avalanche releases in the Swiss Alps. We found negative trends for two typical situations, ‘new snow forest avalanches’ and ‘other forest avalanches’. In combination with the currently observed increase in forest cover extent and density, it is thus likely that avalanche releases in forests will become less frequent. For avalanches started in forested areas, we found that higher densities of small-diameter trees (<15 cm) in the starting zone significantly reduced the runout distance. Repeated measurements of forest parameters in avalanche starting zones revealed an increase in density of small trees over the last 20-25 years which leads to the hypothesis that the destructive potential of such avalanches will be reduced in the future. In order to account for avalanches and their effect on mountain forests and forest avalanche frequency, we employed the forest-landscape model TreeMig-Aval to exemplify a possible future development in a high alpine valley in Switzerland.

    Object ID: issw-2012-224-251.pdf

    Language of Article: English

    Presenter(s): Unknown

    Keywords: climate change impact, forests, terrian, weather

    Page Number(s): 244-251

    Subjects: forests snowpack conditions weather conditions

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