International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: Vulnerability: Caught in an Avalanche – Then What are the Odds?

• • Title: Vulnerability: Caught in an Avalanche – Then What are the Odds?

    Proceedings: Proceedings, 2012 International Snow Science Workshop, Anchorage, Alaska

    Authors:

    • Bruce Jamieson  [ Department of Civil Engineering, Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada ]
    • Alan S.T. Jones  [ Dynamic Avalanche Consul t ing Ltd. , Revelstoke, Canada ]

    Date: 2012

    Abstract: Vulnerability is an essential component in qualitative and quantitative avalanche risk analyses. It is the probable consequences given that the element-at-risk is hit by or caught in an avalanche. Since consequences vary with avalanche characteristics, there is a level of vulnerability associated with each type or size of avalanche. The avalanche size classification based on destructive potential is well suited to classifying vulnerability into different levels. We review vulnerability for vehicles on roads, buildings as well as backcountry recreationists and workers. Quantitative vulnerability typicallyrequires some data, although expert estimation can be used with or without data. Quantitativevulnerability has the advantage that it can be used in comparisons with other risks to determine if a risk is acceptable. For backcountry recreation, data from non-fatal injuries are limited, so most calculations ofvulnerability for people use only the expected probability of death. Using Canadian accident data, weestimate the vulnerability (probability of death) to roughly 0.004 to 0.007 for a Size D2 avalanche(destructive scale) and ten times higher for a Size D3 avalanche. We show how balloon packs canchange the vulnerability of recreationists, and include an example of how vulnerability can be used in anavalanche risk assessment for a worksite.

    Object ID: issw-2012-001-008.pdf

    Language of Article: English

    Presenters: unknown

    Keywords: vulnerability, avalanche properties, destructive avalanches, avalanche risk management, hazard index,

    Page Number(s): 1-8

    Subjects: avalanche risk worker safety recreational avalanche data

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