Item: Climate Change in Western Ski Areas: Timing of Wet Avalanches in Aspen Ski Area in the Years 2030 and 2100
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Title: Climate Change in Western Ski Areas: Timing of Wet Avalanches in Aspen Ski Area in the Years 2030 and 2100
Proceedings: Proceedings of the 2006 International Snow Science Workshop, Telluride, Colorado
Authors:
- Brian Lazar [ Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, Colorado and American Institute of Avalanche Research and Education, Gunnison, Colorado ]
- Mark Williams [ Department of Geography and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado ]
Date: 2006
Abstract: We evaluate how climate change resulting from increased greenhouse gas emissions may affect the timing of wet avalanches at Aspen Mountain in the years 2030 and 2100. Snow quantity was evaluated using the SRM, and we determined the timing of wet avalanche activity by examining changes to historical average temperatures. Climate changes were evaluated using MAGICC/SCENGEN and the output from five GCMs, based on which GCMs best simulate present climate patterns. The climate change estimates were run using the relatively low, mid-range, and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1, A1B, and A1FI. We then bracketed potential climate changes by using the mean of the five models, a warm-wet model projection (HadCM2), and a warm-dry model projection (ECHAM3). We define wet slab avalanches as likely to occur when average daily temperature exceeds 0°C and investigate three scenarios: first day when daily average temperature exceeds 0°C, first period of three consecutive days when average temperature exceeds 0°C, and the day after which average temperature remains greater than 0°C. We focus on the top of the mountain and the base area for the years 2030 and 2100. By 2030 at the top of Aspen Mountain, wet avalanches are likely to occur between two and 19 days earlier than historical averages, with little difference across the GCMs. In 2100, the A1B and B1 scenarios show that wet avalanches at the top of the mountain start 16 to 27 days earlier. In contrast, the A1FI scenario shows wet avalanches occurring 41 to 45 days earlier. This same pattern is evident at the base area, with wet avalanches likely to occur six to 22 days earlier by 2030, and little variance in the GCMs; 22 to 37 days earlier for the A1B and B1 emission scenarios; and 57 to 65 days earlier for the A1FI scenario.
Object ID: issw-2006-899-906.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Unknown
Keywords: climate change, wet avalanches, aspen, ski areas, gcm
Page Number(s): 899-906
Subjects: climate change wet avalanche ski areas
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