Item: Cornice - Development of a Nearest Neighbours Model Applied in Backcountry Avalanche Forecasting in Scotland
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Title: Cornice - Development of a Nearest Neighbours Model Applied in Backcountry Avalanche Forecasting in Scotland
Proceedings: 2002 International Snow Science Workshop, Penticton, British Columbia
Authors:
- Ross Purves [ Department of Geography, University of Zurich ]
- Keith Morrison [ Geowise, Edinburgh, UK ]
- Graham Moss [ Sport Scotland Avalanche Information Service ] [ Formerly at the Department of Geography, University of Edinburgh, UK ]
- Blyth Wright [ Sport Scotland Avalanche Information Service ] [ Formerly at the Department of Geography, University of Edinburgh, UK ]
Date: 2002
Abstract: This paper describes the development and refinement of a nearest neighbors avalanche forecasting model in Scotland. Avalanche forecasting in Scotland is carried out in five areas, primarily for mountaineers who are either winter climbing or mountaineering in 'backcountry' locations where no avalanche control is carried out. Forecasting is primarily conventional, but computer-models are also used - NXD was introduced in the early nineties and based on our experiences with NXD the model described in this paper, Cornice, was developed and introduced. Cornice has been developed in close consultation with avalanche forecasters and aims to provide a tool which integrates well with conventional avalanche forecasting by encouraging hypothesis testing. In order to facilitate this approach, model development must focus not only on the event we are forecasting, but mechanisms for outputting useful information in a range of ways to the forecaster. In this paper we describe two novel elements of Cornice: the development of automated, objective methods for weighting of parameters through the use of a genetic algorithm and the use of graphical output from forecasts allowing the forecaster to visualize relationships between neighbors in terms of clustering in meteorological/snowpack variables and the identification of spatial clusters of avalanche occurrence in location, altitude and aspect. We present results from the operational use of the model over the past three winters for the Ben Nevis area and examine its integration into a conventional avalanche forecasting framework.
Object ID: issw-2002-117-122.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Unknown
Keywords: avalanche forecasting, avalanches, computer models
Page Number(s): 117-122
Subjects: cornice control methods avalanche forecasting computer models
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