Precipitation and Reproduction are Negatively Associated with Female Turkey Survival

Understanding how reproductive tradeoffs act in concert with abiotic elements to affect survival is important for effective management and conservation of wildlife populations, particularly for at‐risk or harvested species. Wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo ) are a high‐interest species for consumptive and non‐consumptive uses, and female survival is a primary factor influencing turkey population dynamics. We radio‐tracked and collected survival data on 140 female Merriam's wild turkeys (M. g. merriami ) in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota, USA, 2016–2018. We developed and compared a set of candidate models to evaluate how nest incubation, brood rearing, and precipitation could be associated with female survival. Increased time spent incubating was associated with reduced female survival. Additionally, daily precipitation was associated with reduced survival of incubating females. Seasonal survival was lowest during spring and winter. A female that did not incubate a nest was predicted to have a higher rate of annual survival (0.53, 85% CI = 0.48–0.59) than a female that incubated a single nest (0.47, 85% CI = 0.42–0.53). Despite the relative proximity of population segments, we estimated that annual survival for nesting and non‐nesting females was lower in the northern Black Hills compared to annual female survival in the southern Black Hills, underscoring the need for region‐specific data when possible.

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