Item: A conceptual model of avalanche hazard
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Title: A conceptual model of avalanche hazard
Proceedings: 2010 International Snow Science Workshop
Authors: Grant Statham1*, Pascal Haegeli2, Karl W. Birkeland3, Ethan Greene4, Clair Israelson5, Bruce Tremper6, Chris Stethem7, Bruce McMahon8, Brad White1, John Kelly5
Date: 2010
Abstract: Conventional avalanche forecasting is practiced as a mix of deterministic treatment for snow and weather parameters and inductive logic to reach actual forecast decisions (LaChapelle, 1980). Avalanche forecasters subjectively integrate a complex array of data and evidence to reach their decisions, often operating under a high degree of uncertainty. Spatial scales in avalanche forecasting are widely variable, ranging from slope specific predictions to large, regional areas characterized by significant variation across space, and over time. Thus, forecasters must synthesize the available evidence, and extrapolate this across the landscape by relying on their knowledge of the terrain. In this poster, we provide a new approach to avalanche hazard assessment based on a comprehensive, risk-based examination of the process. We decompose avalanche hazard into its base components, and reassemble them into a probability-consequence framework. The resulting conceptual model of avalanche hazard mimics the expert reasoning process, and offers a meaningful pathway from individual field observations to the final hazard assessment. The framework applies to all operational forecasting situations (e.g. public bulletins, ski areas, backcountry operations and highways), and clearly highlights the similarities in their assessment methods. Furthermore, this model allows a more explicit integration of scale and uncertainty, has a high educational value because of its transparency, and offers a unifying platform for avalanche hazard assessments and danger ratings by promoting consistency. The complete manuscript describing this work is currently in the final stages for submission to a peerreviewed journal. Please contact the corresponding author to receive a copy of the accepted manuscript. * Corresponding author address: Grant Statham, Parks Canada, Box 900, Banff, Alberta, Canada, T1L 1K2; Phone: 403 762 1568; Email: grant.statham@pc.gc.ca , Additional Authors: 1Parks Canada Agency, Banff, AB 2Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC; Avisualanche Consulting, Vancouver, BC 3USDA Forest Service National Avalanche Centre, Bozeman, MT 4Colorado Avalanche Information Centre, Boulder, CO 5Canadian Avalanche Centre, Revelstoke, BC 6USDA Forest Service Utah Avalanche Centre, Salt Lake City, UT 7Chris Stethem & Associates Ltd., Canmore, AB 8Parks Canada Agency, Rogers Pass, BC
Presenters: Unknown
Keywords: avalanche forecasting, weather parameters, terrain, danger ratings
Subjects: model avalanche hazard danger ratings
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