Item: COMPARISON OF THE GLIDE ACTIVITY AT TWO DISTINCT REGIONS USING SWISS AND U.S. DATASETS
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Title: COMPARISON OF THE GLIDE ACTIVITY AT TWO DISTINCT REGIONS USING SWISS AND U.S. DATASETS
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2023, Bend, Oregon
Authors:
- Franz-Josef Resch [ University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria ]
- Edward Bair [ Leidos, Inc., Reston, VA USA ] [ University of California, Santa Barbara, CA USA ]
- Erich Peitzsch [ U.S. Geological Survey - Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, MT, USA ]
- Zachary Miller [ U.S. Geological Survey - Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, MT, USA ]
- Amelie Fees [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
- Alec van Herwijnen [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
- Ingrid Reiweger [ University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria ]
Date: 2023-10-08
Abstract: Forecasting the timing of glide-snow avalanches still presents a challenge. Studies aiming for forecasting glide-snow avalanches usually employ statistical rather than physical approaches and often focus on a single geographical region. Several statistical approaches have shown promising results. Building on previous work, we employed various statistical models using data collected from two sites: Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, and the Dorfberg, Davos, Switzerland. We applied three different statistical methods, namely Random Forest Models, Binary Classification Trees, and a Multiple Linear Regression Model for analyzing contributing factors (predictors) for glide-snow avalanche events. For contributing factors we used meteorological parameters recorded at nearby weather stations. We focused on glide-snow avalanches driven by surface melt as opposed to melt initiating at the ground/snow interface. To compare model performance we used receiver operator characteristics. Although there are differences in the meteorological parameters that cause natural glide-snow avalanches at the two different locations, we also found similarities in the predictors of glide-snow avalanches across regions. Neither area showed glide release after a short-term change in environmental conditions. Results also suggest that a deeper snowpack takes more time to adjust to changes in air temperature. While we found strong similarities in predictors across sites, we did find some significant differences among predictors of glide activity. Our model showed that glide activity at the Dorfberg seemed independent of the snow depth, suggesting glide-snow avalanches can occur at any snow coverage. Conversely, glide-snow avalanches in Glacier National Park appeared to only occur above a certain snow depth, this snow-depth was related to glide-snow avalanche cycles in spring. Our models show similarities and differences across different regions and help to improve the understanding and forecasting of glide-snow avalanches.
Object ID: ISSW2023_P1.01.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Edward Bair
Keywords: glide-snow avalanche, forecasting, full-depth avalanches
Page Number(s): 144 - 149
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