Item: The Dangerator: a method for estimating avalanche danger in areas with no public avalanche forecast
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Title: The Dangerator: a method for estimating avalanche danger in areas with no public avalanche forecast
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria
Authors:
- James A. Floyer [ Avalanche Canada, Revelstoke, BC, Canada ] [ Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada ]
- Mark A. Bender [ Avalanche Canada, Revelstoke, BC, Canada ]
Date: 2018-10-07
Abstract: Avalanche Canada has developed a simple methodology for estimating avalanche danger to support Avalanche Skills Training (AST) students and instructors in areas where no public avalanche forecasts are available or in the early/late season when ratings are not available within official forecast regions. The methodology provides very simple guidance in the form of a decision tree. The Dangerator decision tree assumes that if you know nothing about the current state of the snowpack, your starting point should be to assume a considerable (Level 3) rating. There are then two steps which may adjust this danger rating, based on a simple analysis of current conditions using existing AST concepts and terminology: 1. If critical loading applies or critical warming conditions exist, the danger increases to high (Level 4); 2. If, there is no recent loading and no recent slab avalanches and no recent signs or reports of a persistent slab problem, the danger reduces to moderate (Level 2). In one validation study, the Dangerator predicted the same danger or higher compared with Avalanche Canada’s regionl danger ratings on over 90% of the days. A general bias towards a more conservative assessment was observed, particularly under early season and late season (spring) conditions.
Object ID: ISSW2018_O15.2.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: Dangerator, avalanche, danger ratings, avalanche skills training, forecast, data sparse
Page Number(s): 1279-1283
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