Item: Application of physical snowpack models in support of operational avalanche hazard forecasting: a status report on current implementations and prospects for the future
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Title: Application of physical snowpack models in support of operational avalanche hazard forecasting: a status report on current implementations and prospects for the future
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria
Authors:
- S. Morin [ Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, CEN, Grenoble, France ]
- C. Fierz [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
- S. Horton [ Avalanche Canada, Revelstoke, Canada ]
- M. Bavay [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
- C. Coléou [ Météo-France, DirOP, Cellule Montagne Nivologie, Grenoble, France ]
- M. Dumont [ Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, CEN, Grenoble, France ]
- A. Gobiet [ Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik ZAMG, Vienna, Austria ]
- P. Hagenmuller [ Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, CEN, Grenoble, France ]
- M. Lafaysse [ Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, CEN, Grenoble, France ]
- C. Mitterer [ AlpSolut, Livigno, Italy ]
- F. Monti [ AlpSolut, Livigno, Italy ]
- K. Müller [ Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, 0368, Norway ]
- M. Olefs [ Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik ZAMG, Vienna, Austria ]
- J. S. Snook [ Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) ]
- F. Techel [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ] [ University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Zurich ]
- A. van Herwijnen [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
- V. Vionnet [ Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, CEN, Grenoble, France ] [ Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada ]
Date: 2018-10-07
Abstract: The application of physically-based numerical modeling of the snowpack in support of avalanche hazard prediction is increasing. Modeling, in complement to direct observations and weather forecasting, provides information otherwise unavailable on the present and future state of the snowpack and its mechanical stability. However, there is a significant mismatch between the capabilities of modeling tools developed by research organizations and implemented by some operational services, and the actual operational use of those by avalanche forecasters, thereby causing frustration on both sides. By summarizing currently implemented modeling tools specifically designed for avalanche forecasting, we intend to diminish and contribute to bridge this gap. We highlight specific features and potential added value, as well as challenges preventing a more widespread use of these modeling tools. Lessons learned from currently used methods are explored and provided, as well as prospects for the future, including a list of the most critical issues to be addressed.
Language of Article: English
Presenters:
Keywords: avalanche forecast, numerical modeling, snowpack modeling, meteorological forecast
Page Number(s): 1098-1107
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Digital Abstract Not Available
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