Item: Can scenario-based avalanche dynamics calculations help in the decision making process for road closures?
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Title: Can scenario-based avalanche dynamics calculations help in the decision making process for road closures?
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria
Authors:
- Lukas Stoffel [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
- Perry Bartelt [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
- Stefan Margreth [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
- Jürg Schweizer [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
Date: 2018-10-07
Abstract: Temporary prevention measures such as closures and evacuation of endangered areas are important elements of the integral avalanche protection approach. They require assessing the avalanche hazard, which usually involves analyzing snow and weather data, avalanche occurrence and snowpack conditions in combination with local knowledge and experience. Predicting a probable avalanche runout is a main goal of such an evaluation. Combining avalanche dynamics calculations with (modelled) snow cover data along the path may help predicting avalanche runout. With recent advances in avalanche flow modelling, e.g. snow temperature dependent entrainment processes, this approach seems feasible. We chose the well-documented Salezertobel avalanche path (Davos, Switzerland) for an initial case study. We apply scenario-based avalanche dynamics calculations using different release and entrainment conditions (fracture depth, location and number of release areas, entrainment depth and snow temperature) to predict the potential runout. The simulation results vary strongly for the different scenarios, yet are plausible. They exemplarily show how the different variations in model input affect the runout distance. Further variations must be studied, e.g. different sizes of the release area, before a support tool for avalanche control services may become useful.
Object ID: ISSW2018_P08.14.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: Avalanche dynamic, hazard evaluation, road closure.
Page Number(s): 772-777
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