Item: Multivariate Parameter Optimization for Operational Application of Extended Kinetic Theory in Simulation Software
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Title: Multivariate Parameter Optimization for Operational Application of Extended Kinetic Theory in Simulation Software
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2016 Proceedings, Breckenridge, CO, USA
Authors:
- Andreas Kofler [ Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Jan-Thomas Fischer [ Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Andreas Huber [ Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Wolfgang Fellin [ University of Innsbruck, Institute of Infrastructure, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Matthias Rauter [ Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Innsbruck, Austria ] [ University of Innsbruck, Institute of Infrastructure, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Matthias Granig [ Austrian Service for Torrent and Avalanche Control, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Elisabeth Hainzer [ Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Christian Tollinger [ Austrian Service for Torrent and Avalanche Control, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Karl Kleemayr [ Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Innsbruck, Austria ]
Date: 2016-10-02
Abstract: State of the art avalanche simulation software is used for avalanche prediction and hazard mapping. Amongst other factors, the choice of an appropriate rheological model is of major importance. Here, we apply a rheological model based on kinetic theory, which unifies two different flow types; (i) the rapid motion of granular material, based on a statistical description of collisions between the particles and (ii) slow motions by incorporating the critical state theory. The involved model parameters strongly influence the simulation results. They are optimized with the help of an objective method, comparing different simulation results to documented avalanche events. This multivariate optimization approach incorporates variables such as runout length, velocity, affected area and volume growth. Simulation results with good overall accordance to the observations can be identified, when applying the optimization to a single avalanche event. However, a comparison of multiple events shows, that the optimal parameter sets for single events can hardly be applied to a wide range of avalanches. Therefore, the optimization method is adapted for the combined optimization of multiple avalanches and the resulting parameter distributions are evaluated. By performing simulations with the obtained optimal parameter set and the optimal parameter sets from the single analysis for respective avalanches, the prediction accuracy can be evaluated.
Object ID: ISSW16_P4.37.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: snow avalanche, computational avalanche dynamics, simulation optimization, design event
Page Number(s): 1323-1329
Subjects: simulation optimization computer software avalanche
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