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Item: Towards an Improved European Auxiliary Matrix for Assessing Avalanche Danger Levels

    • Title: Towards an Improved European Auxiliary Matrix for Assessing Avalanche Danger Levels

      Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2016 Proceedings, Breckenridge, CO, USA

      Authors:

      • Karsten Müller  [ Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
      • Thomas Stucki  [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
      • Christoph Mitterer  [ Lawinenwarnzentrale im Bayerischen Landesamt für Umwelt, Munich, Germany ]  [ ALPsolut S.r.l., Livigno, Italy ]
      • Patrick Nairz  [ Lawinenwarndienst Tirol, Innsbruck, Austria ]
      • Hans Konetschny  [ Lawinenwarnzentrale im Bayerischen Landesamt für Umwelt, Munich, Germany ]
      • Thomas Feistl  [ Lawinenwarnzentrale im Bayerischen Landesamt für Umwelt, Munich, Germany ]
      • Cecile Coleou  [ CEN Météo France, Grenoble, France ]
      • Flavio Berbenni  [ ARPA Lombardia, Sondrio, Italy ]
      • Igor Chiambretti  [ AINEVA, Trento, Italy ]

      Date: 2016-10-02

      Abstract: Since 1993, the European Avalanche Warning Services (EAWS) use a common 5-level Avalanche Danger Scale to describe the regional avalanche danger in public bulletins. In order to ensure a unified and harmonized use of the danger rating, EAWS introduced an auxiliary matrix (Bavarian matrix) in 2005. The matrix represents danger levels given in the European Avalanche Danger Scale according to the release probability and distribution of hazardous sites. Its intention is to ensure a high level of objectivity and consistency among different forecasters and forecasting services in situations that are arbitrary based on the danger scale alone. Currently an EAWS workgroup extends the auxiliary matrix by integrating avalanche size to broaden the applicability of the matrix. The intention is to provide an improved tool that clearly defines each danger level based on the release probability, distribution of hazardous sites, and the size of expected avalanches. We used two different methods to link the three parameters to a danger rating: (i) expert opinion of various forecasters and (ii) data base analyses of several winter seasons. We will present the draft for the updated matrix, explain the concept behind it and its intended application. Further, we give insights into similarities, but also differences to the Conceptual Model used in North America. We will provide a draft-version to all EAWS members prior to winter 2016/2017 in order to test the new concept and collect feedback over one season. The intention is to present a final version by 2017

      Language of Article: English

      Presenters:

      Keywords: avalanche forecasting, bavarian matrix, EAWS

      Page Number(s): 1229-1231

      Subjects: EAWS avalanche forecasting bavarian matrix

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