Item: Combining the Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard With the Bavarian Matrix
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Title: Combining the Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard With the Bavarian Matrix
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2016 Proceedings, Breckenridge, CO, USA
Authors:
- Karsten Müller [ Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
- Christoph Mitterer [ ALPsolut S.r.l., Livigno, Italy ]
- Rune V. Engeset [ Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
- Ragnar Ekker [ Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
- Solveig Ø. Kosberg [ Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
Date: 2016-10-02
Abstract: The European Avalanche Danger Scale provides definitions for each of the five danger levels. However, some terms used in the scale are not fully defined, which might lead to inconsistent assessments and communication of avalanche danger among different forecasting services, but also within the same team of forecasters. Already in 2005, the European Avalanche Warning Services (EAWS) introduced the Bavarian Matrix (BM) as an auxiliary tool to overcome these inconsistencies. However, some of the cells of the matrix are still not fully accepted and discussed within the EAWS. Discussions among forecasters revealed that the ambiguous definitions of the terms applied within the BM are the main reason for the debate on these cells. In 2010, the North American avalanche community implemented a revised version of the avalanche danger scale and declared its first and foremost purpose is public risk communication. The Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard (CMAH) was developed as part of the revision process in North America. It describes the process of avalanche danger assessment in a comprehensive manner. The strength of the CMAH is its streamlined structure and definition of the individual terms used and its integration of avalanche problems. Although all applied terms map directly to the North American Avalanche Danger Scale, the CMAH fails to provide a danger level at the end of the assessment process, which again might lead to different assessments. Therefore, we propose a merge of the two concepts, CMAH and BM. Our merge resulted in the Avalanche Danger Assessment Matrix (ADAM), which consists of a likelihood-matrix and a danger-matrix based on the NA definitions. We also provide a link to the terms used within the EAWS.
Object ID: ISSW16_O20.03.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: Avalanche forecasting, Bavarian Matrix, Conceptual model of avalanche hazard, EAWS
Page Number(s): 472-479
Subjects: avalanche forecasting avalanche danger scale avalanche warning strategies
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