International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: North American Avalanche Danger Scale: Are Public Backcountry Forecasters Applying it Consistently?

• • Title: North American Avalanche Danger Scale: Are Public Backcountry Forecasters Applying it Consistently?

    Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2016 Proceedings, Breckenridge, CO, USA

    Authors:

    • Brian Lazar  [ Colorado Avalanche Information Center, Boulder, CO, USA ]
    • Simon Trautman  [ USDA Forest Service National Avalanche Center, Bozeman, MT, USA ]
    • Mike Cooperstein  [ Colorado Avalanche Information Center, Boulder, CO, USA ]
    • Ethan Greene  [ Colorado Avalanche Information Center, Boulder, CO, USA ]
    • Karl Birkeland  [ USDA Forest Service National Avalanche Center, Bozeman, MT, USA ]

    Date: 2016-10-02

    Abstract: The North American Avalanche Danger Scale is a tool used by backcountry avalanche forecasters to communicate the potential for avalanches to cause harm or injury to backcountry travelers. Danger ratings are the most basic component of the public forecast, providing the foundation for more nuanced descriptions of avalanche conditions. In 2010, the United States, Canada, and New Zealand adopted a consistent, five-tiered danger scale. Although widely used, we do not know how consistently the danger scale is applied both within and between avalanche forecasting operations. To address this question, we developed ten scenarios capturing a variety of avalanche conditions at the mountain range scale. We derived the scenarios from real avalanche forecasts issued by various avalanche centers throughout North America. Avalanche forecasters in the United States, Canada, and New Zealand reviewed each scenario and assigned a single danger rating for the forecast period. Results indicate that although most respondents choose ratings within one step of each other, individual forecasters can arrive at different conclusions when presented with identical information. Additionally, it appears that there are regional and/or cultural differences in how forecasters assign danger ratings.

    Language of Article: English

    Presenters:

    Keywords: avalanche danger scale, avalanche danger ratings, avalanche forecasting

    Page Number(s): 457-465

    Subjects: avalanche forecasting danger ratings avalanche danger scale

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