Item: Combining Snowpack Models and Observations for Better Avalanche Danger Assessments
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Title: Combining Snowpack Models and Observations for Better Avalanche Danger Assessments
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2016 Proceedings, Breckenridge, CO, USA
Authors:
- Fabiano Monti [ ALPsolut, Livigno, Italy ] [ Università degli Studi dell'Insubria, Department of Science and High Technology, Como, Italy ]
- Christoph Mitterer [ ALPsolut, Livigno, Italy ]
- Walter Steinkogler [ ALPsolut, Livigno, Italy ]
- Mathias Bavay [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
- Andrea Pozzi [ Università degli Studi dell'Insubria, Department of Science and High Technology, Como, Italy ]
Date: 2016-10-02
Abstract: Now-casting of avalanche danger is mainly based on direct snow stability observations (e.g. recent avalanches), snow stability tests combined with stratigraphic analyses and snowpack simulations. All these data, however, have limitations related to their temporal and spatial validity. Manual snow profiles are at most useful for days, while simulated profiles are generally available for fixed locations only. In this work we present an approach for increasing the strength of the available data in terms of both, temporal and spatial representativeness. We used a network of automatic weather stations for computing spatial 2-D interpolations of weather parameters to simulate virtual weather stations at different locations. Then, we combined the synthetic data with manual snow profiles and simulated their evolutions depending to the local weather conditions using the 1-D snow cover model SNOWPACK. We tested this approach in the Livigno municipality, Italy. The simulated evolution after reinitializing with the manual snow profile was generally in good agreement with field observations. Moreover, by simulating the snow cover for different virtual weather stations within the study area we increased the available information, which was particularly helpful for the avalanche forecasters for better evaluating the variability of the local snow stability conditions. The presented approach was particularly efficient since it increases the exploitation of already available information and will help both, the forecasters for the avalanche danger assessment and the professionals for better managing the avalanche risk.
Language of Article: English
Presenters:
Keywords: avalanche forecasting, manual observations, snow cover modeling, snow and weather data
Page Number(s): 343-348
Subjects: avalanche forecasting snow cover model snow and weather data
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Digital Abstract Not Available
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