International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: Operational Forecasting of Wet Snow Avalanche Activity: a Case Study for the Eastern European Alps

• • Title: Operational Forecasting of Wet Snow Avalanche Activity: a Case Study for the Eastern European Alps

    Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2016 Proceedings, Breckenridge, CO, USA

    Authors:

    • Andreas Gobiet  [ Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Graz, Austria ]
    • Christoph Mitterer  [ alpS, Innsbruck, Austria ]  [ ALPsolut, Livingno, Italy ]
    • Lisa Jöbstl  [ Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Graz, Austria ]
    • Walter Steinkogler  [ Wyssen Avalanche Control, Reichenbach, Switzerland ]  [ ALPsolut, Livingno, Italy ]
    • Hannes Rieder  [ Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Graz, Austria ]
    • Marc Olefs  [ Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Graz, Austria ]
    • Arnold Studeregger  [ Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Graz, Austria ]
    • Fabiano Monti  [ ALPsolut, Livingno, Italy ]
    • Sascha Bellaire  [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]

    Date: 2016-10-02

    Abstract: The prognostic operation of detailed snowpack models has recently been objective of extensive research, since many avalanche services start to move from the assessment of the current avalanche danger to forecasts. In this study a new, observationally constrained setup for forecasting the onset of wet-snow avalanche cycles with the detailed snow cover model SNOWPACK is presented and evaluated. Based on data from weather stations and different numerical weather prediction models we demonstrate, that forecasts of the LWC_index as indicator for wet-snow avalanche cycles can be useful for operational warning services in some cases, but are so far not reliable enough to be used as single warning tool without considering other factors. In addition, this study indicates some potential for improvement by applying suitable post processing techniques to the output of numerical weather prediction models. Based on the results of this study LWC_index predictions will be used operationally by two regional avalanche warning services in Austria starting with the season 2016-2017.

    Object ID: ISSW16_O6.02.pdf

    Language of Article: English

    Presenter(s):

    Keywords: forecast, wet-snow avalanches, LWC_index, SNOWPACK

    Page Number(s): 132-139

    Subjects: wet snow avalanches LWC_index european alps

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