Item: Avalanche Forecast Verification Through a Comparison of Local Nowcasts with Regional Forecast
-
-
Title: Avalanche Forecast Verification Through a Comparison of Local Nowcasts with Regional Forecast
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2014 Proceedings, Banff, Canada
Authors:
- Eirik Sharp [ Canadian Avalanche Center, Revelstoke, BC Canada ]
Date: 2014-09-29
Abstract: This paper presents a methodology and a new dataset used by the Canadian Avalanche Center's Yukon Field Team in the winters of 2013 and 2014 to validate their forecasts of avalanche danger and primary avalanche problem. Using established techniques 77 local nowcasts were compared to operational and public regional forecasts over a variety of lead times. Preliminary results indicate that these forecasts accurately predicated observed conditions for 69% to 85% of cases. There was little difference in accuracy found between the forecasts of danger and avalanche problem and the length of forecasts lead times did not have a significant affect. Several sources of bias are identified that should be filtered in future studies and suggestions for new research are presented.
Object ID: ISSW14_paper_P1.18.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: Yukon, public forecasting, forecast accuracy, forecast skill, temporal scale.
Page Number(s): 516-521
-