International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: New Tool for Avalanche Forecasting in the Krkonoše Mountains

• • Title: New Tool for Avalanche Forecasting in the KrkonoÅ¡e Mountains

    Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Grenoble – Chamonix Mont-Blanc - October 07-11, 2013

    Authors:

    • Roman Juras  [ Department of Environmental Modelling and Water Resources, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Scienses, Prague, Czech Republic ]
    • Jiří Pavlásek  [ Department of Environmental Modelling and Water Resources, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Scienses, Prague, Czech Republic ]
    • Jan Blahůt  [ Department of Engineering Geology, Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic ]
    • Petr BaÅ¡ta  [ Department of Environmental Modelling and Water Resources, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Scienses, Prague, Czech Republic ]
    • ZbynÄ›k Klose  [ Department of Environmental Modelling and Water Resources, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Scienses, Prague, Czech Republic ]
    • VítÄ›slav Moudrý  [ Department of Applied Geoinformatics and Spatial Plannig, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Scienses, Prague, Czech Republic ]
    • Jan Balek  [ Department of Engineering Geology, Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic ]

    Date: 2013-10-07

    Abstract: The Krkonoše Mts., with the highest peak reaching 1602 m a.s.l., is the highest mountain range in the Czech Republic. Despite its low altitude they experience considerably high avalanche activity, even causing fatalities. Unfortunately, and so far, the local authorities do not have available a professional tool for avalanche forecasting. A new project, which started in 2013, focuses on the creation of a mathematical model based on statistical analysis of historical data, weather forecast and detailed terrain analysis. Because the project is at the beginning, therefore this contribution describes only methods to be employed and data available. The study area is 454 km2 and includes 53 permanent avalanche paths, which are very well surveyed and documented. The avalanche paths have been scanned by LiDAR to get very accurate slope and terrain characteristics. In addition a landuse survey is being carried out to obtain information about possible avalanche triggering zones and terrain roughness. Weather and snow condition data covering more than 1100 avalanche events in the last 50 years are being analysed for fitting and calibrating statistical models. Historical data on avalanche types and movement will be compared with terrain surveys and simulations using physical models like RAMMS, Flow-R, AVAL-1D and SAMOS. These data sets will be used for the development of a new avalanche forecasting model, which will be well suited to be employed as a public avalanche alert system for the Krkonoše Mts. and consequently will be extended to other mountain ranges in the Czech Republic.

    Object ID: ISSW13_paper_P1-09.pdf

    Language of Article: English

    Presenter(s): Unknown

    Keywords: czech republic, expert forecasting system, modelling

    Page Number(s): 259-263

    Subjects: avalanche forecasting snowpack model weather conditions

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