Item: Bayes’ Beacon: Avalanche Prediction, Competence, and Evidence for Competence, Modelling the Effect of Competent and Incompetent Predictions of Highly Improbable Events
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Title: Bayes’ Beacon: Avalanche Prediction, Competence, and Evidence for Competence, Modelling the Effect of Competent and Incompetent Predictions of Highly Improbable Events
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Grenoble – Chamonix Mont-Blanc - October 07-11, 2013
Authors:
- Philip A. Ebert [ Law and Philosophy, School of Arts and Humanities, University of Stirling ]
- Theoni Photopoulou [ Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, South Africa ]
Date: 2013-10-07
Abstract: In this paper, we will discuss how competence can affect a person’s ability to avoid avalanches and present a way of modelling such competence. Given that the prior probability of getting caught in avalanches is fairly low for any skier (competent or not), we draw some consequences from the model using Bayes’ theorem for “everyday†situations.
Object ID: ISSW13_paper_O5-04.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Unknown
Keywords: decision-making in avalanche-terrain, modelling competence, bayes’ theorem
Page Number(s): 363-370
Subjects: decision making avalanche beacons avalanche terrain
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