Item: The seven elements of avalanche forecasting
Title: The seven elements of avalanche forecasting
Proceedings: Proceedings of the 1998 International Snow Science Workshop, Sunriver, Oregon
Authors: David M. McClung
Abstract: The first element of avalanche forecasting is the definition: the prediction of current and future snow instability in space and time relative to a given triggering level. The other six elements include: the goal, human factors (perception and risk propensity) , information types, reasoning process, scale (in space and time) and the decision-making process. In this presentation, I will briefly introduce the seven elements with emphasis on the human factors. Further, I will show that the seven elements are all are strongly related to each other and I will indicate the links to terrain. I will argue that the root cause of most accidents involving human triggering is failure in human perception.
Keywords: avalanches, avalanche forecasting, avalanche accidents
Digital Abstract Not Available