Item: The Seven Elements of Avalanche Forecasting
Title: The Seven Elements of Avalanche Forecasting
Proceedings: Proceedings of the 1998 International Snow Science Workshop, Sunriver, Oregon
- David M. McClung
Abstract: The first element of avalanche forecasting is the definition: the prediction of current and future snow instability in space and time relative to a given triggering level. The other six elements include: the goal, human factors (perception and risk propensity) , information types, reasoning process, scale (in space and time) and the decision-making process. In this presentation, I will briefly introduce the seven elements with emphasis on the human factors. Further, I will show that the seven elements are all are strongly related to each other and I will indicate the links to terrain. I will argue that the root cause of most accidents involving human triggering is failure in human perception.
Language of Article: English
Keywords: avalanches, avalanche forecasting, avalanche accidents
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