Item: Probability analysis of avalanche forecasting variables
Title: Probability analysis of avalanche forecasting variables
Proceedings: Proceedings of the 1992 International Snow Science Workshop, Breckenridge, Colorado, USA
Authors: D.M. MQClung, John Tweed, Peter Weir
Abstract: Perla (1970) provided a simple probability analysis of individual factors thought to be important in avalanche hazard evaluations using 20 years of storm data from Alta, Utah. Since then, no similar analysis has been presented for comparison of individual factors from different mountain ranges or climate zones. In this study, 11 years of snow, avalanche and weather records using twice-daily measurements relevant to prediction of the avalanche hazard for the Kootenay Pass Highway in B.C. are analyzed using a method which differs slightly from that applied in the Alta study. Perla used only storm data, whereas we used data gathered from both avalanche and non-avalanche time periods (artificial and natural avalanches were included). Although our time record is shorter, our data base is much larger: approximately 3300 sets of twice-daily observations. These differences affect details but the final results are very similar.
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Keywords: forecasting, kootenay pass, wind direction
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