Item: Mountain weather forecasting in bc for avalanche safety
Title: Mountain weather forecasting in bc for avalanche safety
Proceedings: Proceedings of the 2006 International Snow Science Workshop, Telluride, Colorado
Authors: Dr. Melinda Brugman, Pacific Storm Prediction Centre, Pacific and Yukon Region, Meteorological Survey of Canada, Environment. Canada, 401 Burrard St, Vancouver, BC. Mindy.Brugman@ec.gc.ca
Abstract: A special weather bulletin is produced during the winter season at the Pacific Storm Prediction Centre (PSPC) in Vancouver to support avalanche forecasting efforts in British Columbia. This paper will present a history of this Canadian Avalanche Centre (CAC) bulletin and trace its usage. Verifications are examined. Major forecast busts and hits are examined for several situations related hazardous avalanche conditions in BC – most notably strong southwesterly flows and stalled frontal bands. Weather variables which are most important for improved avalanche safety are identified for each region and suggestions made for how probabilistic ensemble forecasting may improve weather forecasts. The value of direct communication with a trained forecaster is shown through the time-honored traditions of the technical synopses (short term and extended), confidence statements and daily phone briefings. Future improvements will depend on how well we can build upon existing expertise while better communicating new advancements to avalanche professionals and those whose safety depends on accurate mountain weather forecasts.
Keywords: mountain, weather, forecasting, british columbia, environment canada, verification, avalanche, probability, short term, long term, synopses
Digital Abstract Not Available