International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: Statistical runout modeling of snow avalanches in the Catalan Pyrenees

• • Title: Statistical runout modeling of snow avalanches in the Catalan Pyrenees

    Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria

    Authors:

    • Pere Oller  [ RISKNAT; Institut de Recerca Geomodels; Dpt. Dinàmica de la Terra i de l’Oceà; Facultat de Ciències de la Terra; Universitat de Barcelona ]
    • Cristina Baeza  [ Scientific Department. ACUIDAD Consulting, Barcelona, Spain ]
    • Glòria Furdada  [ RISKNAT; Institut de Recerca Geomodels; Dpt. Dinàmica de la Terra i de l’Oceà; Facultat de Ciències de la Terra; Universitat de Barcelona ]

    Date: 2018-10-07

    Abstract: In the present study, the statistical runout regression model α-β was applied in order to update equations obtained 20 years before in the Catalan Pyrenees. This was carried out by including the knowledge of major avalanche activity in this region and by using the current mapping tools. The model was obtained from a dataset constituted by 82 avalanches with an estimated return period of 100 years (T100). General and specific equations were obtained for different types of avalanche path morphologies. The new, updated equations show a good agreement with those obtained previously. However, 23% of the T100 avalanches did not reach the beta point, for which the α-β model could not be applied. The β point is the point on the avalanche profile, at the top of the runout zone, where slope reaches 10º and the model assumes that the avalanche should exceed it. To find out the parameters that could explain why there are avalanches that do not reach the β point we applied a logistic regression analysis. The size of the starting zone (small and very small starting zones), and their aspect (northwest) were the most powerful parameters to explain the non-arrival to the beta point. These results can be related with the known, low frequency major avalanche cycles that occur in the regions where these avalanche paths are located. Probably, T100 major avalanche cycles in these areas do not provide conditions sufficiently optimal to develop avalanches large enough to accomplish with α-β model requirements.

    Object ID: ISSW2018_P08.8.pdf

    Language of Article: English

    Presenter(s):

    Keywords: Avalanche, statistical modeling, regression model, logistic regression model, Pyrenees.

    Page Number(s): 751-755

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