Item: Numerical avalanche prediction in bear pass, british columbia, canada
Title: Numerical avalanche prediction in bear pass, british columbia, canada
Proceedings: 2002 International Snow Science Workshop, Penticton, British Columbia
Authors: James A. Floyer and David M. McClung, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Abstract: A numerical avalanche prediction scheme offering prediction rates greater than 70% is under development for the Bear Pass highway operation, British Columbia. A method using one way analysis of variance and canonical discriminant analysis is proposed to identify the principle variables that allow discrimination between avalanche and non-avalanche days. The optimum variable set identified using this analysis may then be used in a discriminant analysis to classify each time period into an avalanche or a non avalanche day. An analysis is performed using this method for Bear Pass as a whole and also for individual subareas defined within the pass. Improvements on classification rates to three out of the four sub-areas are observed compared to the analysis for the whole pass.
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Keywords: avalanche prediction numerical modeling
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