Item: Numerical Avalanche Prediction in Bear Pass, British Columbia, Canada
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Title: Numerical Avalanche Prediction in Bear Pass, British Columbia, Canada
Proceedings: 2002 International Snow Science Workshop, Penticton, British Columbia
Authors:
- James A. Floyer [ University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada ]
- David M. McClung [ University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada ]
Date: 2002
Abstract: A numerical avalanche prediction scheme offering prediction rates greater than 70% is under development for the Bear Pass highway operation, British Columbia. A method using one way analysis of variance and canonical discriminant analysis is proposed to identify the principle variables that allow discrimination between avalanche and non-avalanche days. The optimum variable set identified using this analysis may then be used in a discriminant analysis to classify each time period into an avalanche or a non avalanche day. An analysis is performed using this method for Bear Pass as a whole and also for individual subareas defined within the pass. Improvements on classification rates to three out of the four sub-areas are observed compared to the analysis for the whole pass.
Object ID: issw-2002-149-151.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Unknown
Keywords: avalanche prediction numerical modeling
Page Number(s): 149-151
Subjects: numerical avalanche prediction bear pass
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