Item: An experience of avalanche diagnostic and forecast models verification
Title: An experience of avalanche diagnostic and forecast models verification
Proceedings: Proceedings of the 2000 International Snow Science Workshop, October 1-6, Big Sky, Montana
Authors: Pavel Chernouss, Center of Avalanche Safety of "Apatit" JSC, Kirovsk, Russia
Abstract: Verification of several types of avalanche occurrence diagnostic and forecast models used by the Centre of Avalanche Safety in the Khibiny Mountains are described. Validity of one and two-dimensional empirical models, multi-dimensional statistical and stochastic models applied to separate avalanche sites and the whole area is considered. Wind speed and direction and precipitation or snowdrift intensity were used for the simple empirical models as predictors. Some more standard meteorological and snowdrift parameters were used in different schemas of discriminant analysis and by the method based on Bayes' formula. The data for last 10 - 20 years were treated. Categorically and probabilistically formulated forecasts were analysed. A correlation coefficient between forecasted and observed situations - Obukhov's criterion is calculated for categorical forecasts and Brayer's criterion for stochastic ones. Comparison of the different models quality was carried out. Warnings made by avalanche forecasters with the models and their subjective experience are evaluated too. Quality of the slushflbw diagnostics is considered separately.
Keywords: forecast, model, safety, predictors, snowdrift
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