Item: Avaluator's obvious clues prevention values are inflated: evidence from canadian avalanche accidents
Title: Avaluator's obvious clues prevention values are inflated: evidence from canadian avalanche accidents
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop, Davos 2009, Proceedings
Authors: Bob Uttl1,*, Kelly Kisinger2, Mekale Kibreab2 and Jan Uttl3 1 Mount Royal College, Calgary, AB, Canada 2 University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada 3 Avidata.ca, Cochrane, AB, Canada
Abstract: The Avaluator Avalanche Accident Prevention Card (Haegeli & McCammon, 2006) was designed to help recreationists to avoid avalanche accidents, and therefore, reduce the overall number of avalanche accidents in Canada involving recreationists. It consists of two parts – the Trip Planner and Obvious Clues -- and is marketed by the Canadian Avalanche Center as a “made in Canada” “science based” decision tool. However, the research has revealed that (a) the data behind the Avaluator's Obvious Clues are not available for inspection (Haegeli and McCammon has repeatedly refused to provide access to their data) (Uttl, Uttl, & Henry, 2008a; Floyer, 2008), (b) Haegeli and McCammon (2006) inappropriately excluded over 1,148 avalanche accident reports from their sample due to missing values and based the prevention values on only 252 accidents; (c) several independent studies found that the Obvious Clues prevention values published in the Avaluator are grossly inflated (e.g., Uttl, Henry, & Uttl, 2008b; Floyer, 2008). Moreover, the Obvious Clues prevention values published in the Avalauator are based on only US rather than Canadian accidents. Our study examined for the first time prevention values (i.e., risk reduction values) of the Obvious Clues in a sample of Canadian avalanche accidents. Our results show that the prevention values published in the Avaluator are grossly inflated, falsely informing users that slopes they are about to cross are relatively safe.
Keywords: avaluator, obvious clues, risk reduction, missing values
Digital Abstract Not Available