Item: Regional methods for snow avalanche prediction: the case of italian alps
Title: Regional methods for snow avalanche prediction: the case of italian alps
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop, Davos 2009, Proceedings
Authors: Daniele Bocchiola Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Abstract: Regional statistical methods carry considerable bearing on prediction of natural events with low frequency of occurrence, including snow avalanches. These methods trade time variability for spatial distribution and increase sample dimensionality for model estimation, so coping with shortness of usually available data base as compared to the high return periods of the design events. In the Italian alpine range, the guidelines set out by AINEVA association inspired to Swiss Procedure Sp endorse hazard mapping based on design avalanches with release depth predicted using the three day snow depth H72 with return period up to 100 years. Considerable uncertainty is entailed in such prediction, mainly due to the average length of the observed H72 series, of twenty years or so. Here, I adopt the regional approach to provide hazard mapping for a particular avalanche site in Lombardia Region of Italy. Hazard maps are built by: i)Sp based upon regional evaluation of H72, ii) long term simulation of snowfall and avalanche occurrence based upon a previously developed regional approach. I then carry out a comparison with the hazard maps as deduced by the two approaches, and draw some final remarks.
Keywords: avalanche hazard, regional methods, long term simulation, italian alps
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