Item: Use of the models safran-crocus-mepra in operational avalanche forecasting
Title: Use of the models safran-crocus-mepra in operational avalanche forecasting
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop, Davos 2009, Proceedings
Authors: Coléou C, Giraud G, Danielou Y, Dumas J-L, Gendre C, Pougatch E CEN, Météo France, Grenoble, France
Abstract: Avalanche forecast is based on the observation of weather conditions and follow-up snow cover. The workstation “Poste_Nivologie”, operational software developed by the CEN, is daily used by French avalanche forecasters to process observed data from the snow observation network. All observed data (snow and weather observations, snow profiles) can be displayed in various screens. Since 2006, a new functionality has been put into service. It consists in the access to the results of the chain of models Safran, Crocus and Mepra. Daily runs of the models provide results for each massif at several altitudes (each 300m), on flat terrain and 2 slopes (20° and 40°) of 6 orientations. Analysed and forecasted results (meteorological input data, snow profiles, snow stability analysis) are available from Day-1 6H to Day+2 6H. The forecaster may visualize graphical representations (maps, pies, snow profiles, historical display) of all the simulated parameters. One of the interest of Safran, Crocus, Mepra models for avalanche forecasters is the help to the spacialisation of the information provided by local observations. “Poste_Nivologie” integrates into the same application observed and simulated snow information that makes easier their necessary comparison. We will present how the forecasters can select amongst the high number of views the most relevant ones according to the day situation. We will also describe the main contributions and limits of the models for different typical situations.
Keywords: avalanche forecast, modelling, avalanche hazard
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